汰役電池為「汽車應用壽命」已盡，但仍具有約七成至八成剩餘容量的電池。近年來，隨著電動車日漸普及，汰役電池之數量日增。由於全球主要國家或經濟體積極推動循環經濟與永續發展，因此，汰役電池應用之預測與產業發展至關重要。雖然如此，相關研究甚少，為跨越研究缺口，本研究擬預測汰役電池產業未來之發展情境，並且前瞻各情境下之應用。
為達成此目標，本研究首先邀集專家，以修正式德菲法確認宏觀環境分析法 (Political, Economic, Social, Technological; Environmental and Legal，PESTEL)之中，各個構面作為情境驅動軸之適用性，其次，使用決策實驗室分析法(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory，DEMATEL)，建構構面和準則間的影響關係，並以基於決策實驗室分析法之網路流程(DEMATEL-based Analytic Network Process，DANP)，推衍每個構面和準則的影響關係權重後，選出三個未來情境最重要的驅動軸之後，以每個驅動軸的正向和反向驅動力，組合八種情境，最後，導入最佳化妥協解法(VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje，VIKOR)，選擇未來五年我國汰役電池產業發展最適合的三種最佳情境。為選擇各情境之下，汰役電池最適合的應用，第二階段研究首先將確認十二種汰役電池的應用方案，再邀集專家，以第一階段宏觀環境分析法之構面與準則，導入最佳化妥協解法，評估三種情境下之最適應用方案。
依據實證研究結果，主要情境驅動軸為技術、法規與經濟，最可能的情境有三，於技術好、法規支持及經濟成長之情境中，最適合的應用為風力發電、太陽能發電、與工廠儲能；技術好、法規不支持及經濟成長之情境中，最適合的應用為太陽能發電，其餘應用與情境一相同；而於技術好、法規支持及經濟衰退之第三種情境中，最適合的應用為工廠儲能、風力發電與行動儲能裝置。本研究之結果，可作為政府訂定政策，或相關產業發展汰役電池之用。

Retired batteries refer to batteries that have achieved the termination of their "vehicle application lifetime," but still retaining approximately 70% to 80% of their remaining capacity. In recent times, there has been a notable increase in the popularity of electric vehicles, leading to a corresponding rise in the quantity of decommissioned batteries. The promotion of circular economy and sustainable development by numerous major countries and economies worldwide has made forecasting and industry development pertaining to retired battery usage increasingly imperative. However, it is evident that there exists a dearth of pertinent scholarly investigations in this area. In order to address the existing research void, the primary objective of this study is to forecast alternative future trajectories for the retired battery business and anticipate the various applications that may arise within each projected scenario.
In order to accomplish this objective, the study initially assembled a panel of experts to modify the macro-environment analysis technique known as Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal (PESTEL), with the intention of utilizing it as scenario-driving axis. Furthermore, the study utilized the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) analysis method to determine the influence linkages between dimensions and criteria. The study employed the DEMATEL-based Analytic Network Process (DANP) to determine the weights of influence relations for each dimension and criterion. Three axes that drive scenarios were subsequently chosen as the most significant. The combination of these axes, along with both positive and negative driving forces, resulted in the emergence of eight potential scenarios. The VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) multi-criteria optimization approach was utilized to select the three most appropriate scenarios for the future development of the retired battery industry in the country within a five-year timeframe.
In order to determine the most appropriate applications for retired batteries in various scenarios, the second phase of the study initially identified twelve prospective application schemes. Following that, experts were engaged to assess the most effective implementation strategies within the three scenarios, utilizing the dimensions and criteria derived from the macro-environment analysis conducted in the initial phase.
Based on empirical research results, the primary scenario-driving axes are technology, regulations, and economics. The most probable scenarios can be categorized into three: in the context of advanced technology, supportive regulations, and economic growth, the most suitable applications are wind power generation, solar power generation, and industrial energy storage. In the context of advanced technology, unsupportive regulations, and economic growth, solar power generation is the most suitable application, while the other applications remain consistent with the first scenario. In the third scenario, characterized by advanced technology, supportive regulations, and economic recession, the most appropriate applications are industrial energy storage, wind power generation, and mobile energy storage devices. The findings of this study can serve as a basis for government policy formulation or for the development of relevant industries involved in the utilization of retired batteries.

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