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研究生: 劉亦宸
Liu, I-Chen
論文名稱: 颱風數目年代際變化生成指數發展
Development of A GPI Index for Tropical Cyclone Interdecadal Variability by CMIP6 HighResMIP Models
指導教授: 鄒治華
Tsou, Chih-Hua
口試委員: 陳正達
Chen, Cheng-Ta
洪志誠
Hong, Chi-Cherng
鄒治華
Tsou, Chih-Hua
口試日期: 2022/07/27
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 87
中文關鍵詞: 西北太平洋年代際變化颱風潛在生成指數CMIP6 模式
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202300533
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:150下載:7
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  • 西北太平洋(WNP)颱風生成數(NTC)具有年代際變化的現象,而颱風的生成會受大尺度環境場的影響,前人依此關係發展出颱風生成指數(GPI),但無法掌握到NTC年代際變化現象。因此本研究以Murakami and Wang(2010)的 GPI 及Wang and Murakami(2020)DGPI 指數中的環境參數為基礎,利用高解析度CMIP6 HighResMIP 資料與主成分迴歸分析(PCR),發展出能掌握在 WNP 區 NTC 年代際變化的 GPI 。
    本研究發現,夏季時多數模式能模擬到 NTC 年代際變化的現象,但在 TC 突變的模擬上和觀測結果並不一致。秋季時,海氣耦合模式的年代際變化、突變模擬上比大氣模式好。模式中以 HadGEM3-GC31-HM 的海氣模式結果與觀測最接近。在兩時期 TC 生成的空間分布差異上,大氣模式的分布和觀測不符甚至相反,而海氣模式在TC多的位置與觀測相符,不過對活躍期數量較少的西北區域較無法掌握。在相關性分析結果上,海氣模式的結果也比大氣模式接近觀測值,且呈現正相關,大氣模式則為負相關。
    藉由探討 NTC 變化與大尺度環境變化的關係,我們發現在活躍期,有利於 TC 生成的大尺度環境分布情況,會與自身 TC 生成較多的區域相對應。兩時期生成指數差異的結果顯示,觀測上 Murakami and Wang(2010)的 GPI 總值變化與實際的 NTC 變化相反,未能掌握非活躍期 NTC 大幅減少的特徵。
    本研究發展的新 GPI 指數(NGPI),雖然選取的環境參數與原有的 GPI 接近,但大多數以年代際變化明顯的 PC2 、 PC3 居多,尤其是在夏季。 NGPI 與原 GPI 最大的不同是,夏天 NGPI 沒有絕對或相對渦度項,在動力因素上,只採用ω項、垂直風切項;在熱力因素上,只採用相對濕度 PC2 、 PC3 。秋天的 NGPI ,在動力因素上,則選用相對渦度項和垂直風切項,在熱力因素上,只採用相對濕度 PC1 。因此,在建立年代際變化新的 GPI 時,考慮不同季節選用不同的環境參數,對於不同季節 NTC 年代際變化的掌握會更好。

    第一章 前言 1 第二章 觀測與模式資料 6 第三章 研究方法 8 1. 生成潛在指數(GPI) 8 2. Regime Shift Index(RSI) 9 3. 主成分迴歸(Principal Components Regression) 11 第四章 TC 年代際模擬 13 4.1 TC 總數年代際模擬 13 4.2 兩時期的 TC 差異 17 第五章 TC生成機制 21 5.1 TC 大尺度環境場分析 21 5.2 TC 與生成潛在指數(GPI) 26 第六章 新 TC 生成指數 32 6.1 主成分迴歸分析(PCR) 32 6.2 不同 GPI 之比較 39 第七章 結論 41 參考文獻 46 附圖表 52

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