對小四至國三間的學生而言，小五及國一時，是他們開始嘗試吸菸人數較多的時期，為了解與診斷這個時期的青少年對吸菸的信念、態度、規範及意向的轉變趨勢及其彼此間的關係，並突破過去有關青少年吸菸研究僅止於橫斷面調查的有限性；本研究依據理性行為理論，從民國81年開始，以３３１名小學四年級男生為對象，做為期六年的長期追蹤調查研究。結果發現研究對象從小四至國三這六年間：一、 其比率呈現隨年級上升而上升之趨勢者有：(一)朋友有吸菸的研究對象。(二)嘗試過吸菸的人數，及現在吸菸者。(三)第一次嘗試吸菸的人數。(四)一週內與暑假內有吸菸意向者。(五)一週內與暑假內，對吸菸的態度、主觀規範與吸菸意向的個別相關值與複相關值。(六)對吸菸的主觀規範持中立者。(七)對吸菸可能導致心理層面的結果信念與結果評價，轉向中立的人數。(八)自覺他的朋友認為他應該吸菸或對他吸菸持中立的看法者。(九)一週內有、無吸菸意向者在心理層面的結果信念與結果評價之差異。二、其比率呈現隨年級上升而下降的趨勢者有：(一) 對吸菸的負向態度。(二) 願意依從參考對象的期待而不吸菸者。三、 達到統計上顯著相關者。(一) 一週內與暑假內，對吸菸的態度、主觀規範、吸菸經驗與吸菸意向的個別相關與複相關。(二) 對吸菸的態度，與「吸菸導致的結果信念與結果評價的相乘積和」的相關。(三) 對吸菸的主觀規範，與「參考對象認為其應不應該吸菸的信念與對參考對象依從動機的相乘積和」的相關。吸菸行為信念的整體發展趨勢:小四時僅止於身體層面，小五至國一間發展為身體與社會層面、心理層面，國二至國三間再發展為身體層面、心理層面。小五及國一時，是吸菸規範信念轉變的重要關鍵期，且至國一以後，顯著參考對象之發展已趨緩和、穩定，以爸爸、媽媽、朋友、老師為主要顯著參考對象。且爸爸與媽媽一直都是居所有顯著參考對象中最為優先的順位。 最後，本研究針對結果加以討論，並提出具體的吸菸教育策略。

For the students within the fourth grade of the elementary school to the third grade of the junior high school, the fifth grade of elementary and the first grade of junior high are the ages at which the students are likely to have their first experience in smoking cigarette. This research is conducted in order to understand and diagnose the change of the students' beliefs, attitudes, subjective norms, and intention of smoking, and the relationship between these variables. This work has also overcome the limitations of the cross-section method used by the previous research papers. Started in 1992, 331 boy students in the fourth grade of elementary were adopted as investigated subjects based on Theory of Reasoned Action, and the whole survey has been done for six years. For the students from the fourth grade of elementary school to the third grade of junior high, the results indicate：1.The percent increases as the grade increases is as follow：(1). The subjects who have friends who are smokers. (2). The number of students which has smoking experience and the number of the present smokers(3) .The students have their first experience in smoking (4). The students have the intention to smoke within a week and during the summer vacation(5). The individual correlation and multiple-correlation value of the attitude toward smoking, the subject norm, and the smoking intention within a week and during summer vacation.(6). The subjects with neutral subjective norm about smoking(7) The subjects who are with the outcomes belief and the evaluation of outcomes tend to be neutral on the psychological level.(8) The subjects who are aware that his friends expect him to smoke, or they bear neutral attitude toward his smoking cigarette.(9) The number of the difference of the outcomes belief and the evaluation of the outcomes between the intenders and non-intenders to smoke within a week in the psychological level.2. The percent decreases as the grade increases is as follow：(1)The number of the subjects which hold negative attitude toward smoking.(2)The number for those who do not smoke owing to the expectation of their objects of reference.3. Which has reached the statistics significant correlation is as follow：(1) The individual correlation and multiple-correlation of the attitude toward smoking, the subject norm, and the smoking intention within a week and during summer vacation.(2) The attitude towards smoking versus "the sum of the belief for the possible outcomes of smoking times the evaluation to these outcomes" (3) The subjective norm versus "the sum of the belief of the objects of reference if the subjects should smoke times motivation of the subjects to comply".The change of development of the smoking beliefs is as follows：limited to the physical level in the fourth elementary; physical, social, and psychological level in the fifth grade of elementary to the first grade of junior high; physical and psychological level in the second to the third junior high。The fifth grade of elementary and the first grade of junior high are the important stages for the change of the norm belief. After the first grade of junior high, the development of the objects of reference goes steadily and slowly. Father, mother, friends and teacher are the major object of reference; Among these, father and mother are always in the first priority。At last, the research aims to discuss the results and thus provide some practical suggestions for smoking education.