泰利(Talim)颱風於2017年9月9日形成，雖未登陸台灣，但中央氣象局與全球多個預報中心針對泰利颱風路徑預報皆未預測其路徑北轉現象。本研究利用WRF模式針對泰利颱風進行數值模擬實驗，採用NCEP FNL及ECMWF ERA5兩種不同全球模式初始場資料進行不同初始時間之系集預報，藉以探討泰利颱風路徑北轉之關鍵因素。
模擬結果顯示，EN_ERA5組較EN_FNL組在平均路徑誤差方面有較佳之模擬結果，根據此結果探討環境場中西北太平洋周遭天氣系統與泰利颱風北轉之間的關係，利用EN_ERA5組系集成員500 hPa高度場與轉向角α之相關性檢驗分析，顯示環境場中杜蘇芮颱風存在、副高系統東退與北方高層槽東移三因素為影響泰利颱風路徑北轉之關鍵因素，且杜蘇芮颱風對泰利颱風路徑北轉之貢獻程度約為副高系統東退與北方高層槽東移的兩倍。
此外，使用ECMWF ERA5較NCEP FNL資料提早預報杜蘇芮的生成，其原因為ECMWF ERA5相對NCEP FNL在初始場中同化更多觀測資料且具備較多有利於颱風生成條件，提供颱風生成初期良好之發展環境。

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