卡玫基(Kalmaegi)颱風於2008年7月16至19日間影響台灣，在登陸台灣期間於中南部地區降下超大豪雨，造成嚴重水災及山區土石流。颱風離台後並引進西南氣流而造成豪雨。本研究使用WRF模式模擬卡玫基颱風個案，探討中部地區豪雨之成因，並針對颱風離台後，台灣西南方海域上空大氣環境與西南氣流造成之降雨進行敏感度分析。
模擬結果顯示，卡玫基為一水氣及風速分布不對稱之颱風，其西南側環流之對流發展明顯較旺盛。在颱風降雨時期，中央山脈的地形效應在對流發展及降雨方面扮演了重要角色。於颱風登陸後，來自颱風低層相對較乾冷之西來氣流受地形阻擋轉為向北至東北運動，並與西北方移入之暖濕對流帶於台灣中部地區輻合。輻合之氣流受到地形抬升，低層水氣舉升凝結，同時與不斷自海峽移入之對流帶於陸地上合併，而使對流系統發展更為旺盛，並在中部山區降下超大豪雨。此外，卡玫基颱風於出海前移速減慢，造成對流系統於中部地區滯留，也是豪雨成災的原因之一。
本研究也利用FDDA資料同化法，在南海北部上空分別加入濕度及風場之虛擬探空資料，可以改善控制組模擬中西南氣流偏弱之情形，並進一步使台灣西南部地區模擬之降雨較接近於觀測。分析結果顯示，水氣與風場調整之後，於台灣西南外海至西南部地區上空水氣增加，位溫高，為一暖濕、不穩定之大氣環境，並於低層伴隨較強之西南風速。此環境有利於西南氣流伴隨之對流系統在通過台灣西南部外海時持續發展，並藉由台灣西南沿海附近強西南風吹送，移入台灣地區。此外，低層強西南風不僅能將潮濕水氣傳送至台灣西南部地區，並受到地形之抬升，使對流上升運動增強，低層水氣舉升凝結，而造成台灣西南部地區顯著之降雨情形。

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