本研究旨在探討理性思考與捷思法在風險環境中，兩者決策結果之差異。本研究使用桌遊「金融戰略王」做為模擬真實投資市場之工具，模擬投資人在歷史循環模式市場與隨機漫步模式市場以預期效用法則與平均法則兩種分別代表理性思考與捷思法的決策策略進行連續五十年的投資行為，以時間序列分析確定整體投資績效之趨勢，並以單因子變異數分析比較十年、二十年、三十年、四十年與五十年投資績效之差異。結果顯示：在不同市場模式中，從50年長期趨勢來看，由預期效用理論衍生的效用法則，其產生的投資績效優於平均法則所產生的投資績效；另外，在不同的時間階段的比較中，效用法則的投資績效皆顯著高於平均法則。此結果表示在風險決策環境中，理性思考中的預期效用法則決策策略所產生之決策結果優於捷思法中的平均法則決策策略所產生之決策結果。最後研究者依據研究結果，建議在相關教學與研究中，應重視理性思考之認知歷程，並依研究限制給予後續研究相關建議。

The purpose of this study was to explore the difference of decision-making outcome between rational thinking and heuristics under a risk environment. Instrument of this study was the WALEX board game, as a simulator of the real world investment market. The decision-making strategies were the expected utility rule and the 1/n rule, representing the rational thinking and heuristics respectively. Both strategies were conducted for fifty years consecutively investment behavior in the historical cycle market model and the random walk market model. Time series analysis was conducted in order to ensure the trends of investment performance, and one-way ANOVA was used to examine the returns of investment in ten years, twenty years, thirty years, forty years, and fifty years. Results were as follows: From the 50-years trend perspective, the investment performance of expected utility rule was significantly higher than 1/n rule in both market models. In addition, the investment performance of expected utility rule was significantly higher than 1/n rule in the comparison of different time periods. The results indicated that under a risk environment, the expected utility rule of rational thinking decision-making strategy outperformed the 1/n rule of heuristics decision-making strategy. Based on this finding, the researcher suggested that the cognitive process of rational thinking should be emphasized in relevant teaching and studies. Finally, suggestions for future research were given according to the limitations of the study.

王甡（1992）：〈由預期效用函數導求最適資產投資組合〉。《證券市場發展季刊》，13，125–138。[Wang, S. (1992). You yuchisiaoyong hanshu daochiou zueishihzihchan touzihzuhe. Review of Securities and Futures Markets, 13, 125–138.]
林正昌（1995）：〈不同生涯決策型態大學生的決策行為研究—屬性數量變化與訊息呈現方式之效果分析〉。《教育心理學報》，48，219–248。[Lin, C.-C. (1995). The study of career decision-making styles of college students' decision behavior: effects of the number of attributes and display formats. Bulletin of Educational Psychology, 48, 219–248.] https://doi.org/10.6251/BEP.19960901.9
林正昌、葉娟妤、毛國楠（2015）：〈「金融素養態度量表」之發展〉。《測驗學刊》，62，45–68。[Lin, C.-C., Yeh, C.-U., & Mao, K.-N. (2015). The development of financial attitude inventory. Psychological Testing, 62, 45–68.]
十二年國民基本教育課程綱要總綱（2014 年 11 月）修正公布。https://www.naer.edu.tw/upload/1/16/doc/288/十二年國教課程綱要總綱.pdf [Curriculum Guidelines of 12-Year Basic Education General Guidelines. (2014, November). Amendment to Articles. https://www.naer.edu.tw/upload/1/16/doc/288/十二年國教課程綱要總綱.pdf]
教育部（2021）：《國語辭典簡編本》。國家教育研究院。[Ministry of Education. (2021). Concised mandarin Chinese dictionary. National Academy for Educational Research.]
陳怡婷（2020）：《從創新桌遊來看理性決策－以北北基WGP金融戰略王大獎賽玩家資產配置行為分析為例》（未出版碩士論文），國立臺灣師範大學。[Chen, Y.-T. (2020). Rational decision making from innovative board games-taking Taipei-Keelung metropolitan area Walex Grand Prix as an example to analyze the asset allocation behavior of players (Unpublished master’s thesis). National Taiwan Normal University.]
楊志明（2015）：〈證券投資信託基金經理人不當行為民事責任之探討〉。《證券暨期貨月刊》，33，30–42。[Yang, J.-M. (2015). The civil liability of the mutual fund managers at misconduct. Securities & Futures Monthly, 33, 30–42.]
楊踐為、李家豪、類惠貞（2007）：〈應用時間序列分析法建構臺灣證券市場之預測交易模型〉。《中華管理評論》，10，1–20。[Yang, J.-W., Lee, J.-H., & Ley, H.-J. (2007). Application of time series model to an emerging financial market: forecasting and trading the Taiwan stock market. Journal of Chinese Management, 10, 1–20.]
劉上群、陳益壯（2017）：〈散戶人格特質對投資行為影響之分析-基於展望理論的實證分析〉。《朝陽商管評論》，16，81–94。[Liu, S.-Q., & Chen, Y.-Z. (2017). The effect of personality characteristics of individual investors’ on investor behavior - empirical analysis based on prospect. Chaoyang Business and Management Review, 16, 81–94.]
董樹功、王力平（2019）：《金融危機的週期性問題探究》。財經錢線文化有限公司。[Dong, S. G., & Wang, L. P. (2019). Jinrong weiji de jhouchising wunti tanjiou. Tsaijing Chiansian Wunhua Yousian Gongsih.]
鄭天澤、陳莉貞、郭怡君、鄭天澤（計畫主持人）（2021）：《2021基金投資人投資行為與偏好問卷調查分析》。資產管理人才培育與產業發展基金委託專題研究，證券暨期貨市場發展基金會。https://webline.sfi.org.tw/download/resh_ftp/research/FullText/f110_2.pdf [Jheng, T.-Z., Chen, L.-J., Guo, Y.-J., & Jheng, T.-Z. (Principal Investigator). (2021). 2021 Jijin touzihren touzih singwei yu pianhao wunjyuan diaocha fensi. (Grant). Securities and Futures Institute. https://webline.sfi.org.tw/download/resh_ftp/research/FullText/f110_2.pdf]
賴映如（2011）：《以層級分析法探討台灣股票型基金投資決策之因素－以專業理財人員與ㄧ般投資人為例》（未出版碩士論文），臺南應用科技大學。[Lai, Y.-J. (2011). The study of the Taiwan equity fund investment decision factors for the professional and general investors by AHP (Unpublished master’s thesis). Tainan University of Technology.]
蘇育慧（2009）：《經驗為良師？股市崩盤期之投資人行為分析》（未出版碩士論文），國立臺灣大學。[Su, Y.-H. (2009). Is experience the teacher? an analysis of investor behavior during the market crash (Unpublished master’s thesis). National Tainan University.]
Arrow, K. J. (1963). Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 82, 141–149.
Bachelier, L. (1900). Théorie de la spéculation. Annales Scientifiques de l’École Normale Supérieure, 17, 21–86. https://doi.org/10.24033/asens.476
Baddeley, A. D., & Hitch, G. (1974). Working memory. Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 8, 47–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-7421(08)60452-1
Bernard, C., He, X., Yan, J.-A., & Zhou, X. Y. (2013). Optimal insurance design under rank-dependent expected utility. Mathematical Finance, 25, 154–186. https://doi.org/10.1111/mafi.12027
Bernoulli, D. (1954). Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk. Econometrica, 22, 23–36. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909829
Blanshard, B. (1962). Reason & analysis. Open Court Publishing Company.
Browning, G., Halcli, A., & Webster, F. (2000). Understanding contemporary society: Theories of the present. SAGE Publications.
Brunswik, E. (1952). The conceptual framework of psychology. University Chicago Press.
Buchanan, J. M., & Tullock, G. (1962). The calculus of consent. The University of Michigan Press.
Chandler, J. (2017). Descriptive decision theory. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2017/entries/decision-theory-descriptive
Clemen, R. T. (1991). Making hard decisions: an introduction to decision analysis. Duxbury.
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioural sciences. Lawrence Erlbaum Associate.
Cook, K. S., & Hegtvedt, K. A. (1983). Distributive justice, equity, and equality. Annual Review of Sociology, 9, 217–241. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.so.09.080183.001245
Cootner, P. H. (1964). The random character of stock market prices. The MIT Press.
Corey, G. (2016). Theory and practice of counseling and psychotherapy. Cengage Learning.
DeMiguel, V., Garlappi, L., & Uppal, R. (2009). Optimal versus naive diversification: how inefficient is the 1/n portfolio strategy? Review of Financial Studies, 22, 1915–1953. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhm075
Deutsch, M. (1975). Equity, equality, and need: what determines which value will be used as the basis of distributive justice? Journal of Social Issues, 31, 137–149. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-4560.1975.tb01000.x
Dow, J., & da Costa Werlang, S. R. (1992). Uncertainty aversion, risk aversion, and the optimal choice of portfolio. Econometrica, 60, 197–204. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951685
Elkamhi, R., Jo, C., Lee, S. H., & Salerno, M. (2020). The jury is still out on the performance of naive diversification (1/n rule). Rotman School of Management Working Paper.
Fama, E. F. (1965). The behavior of stock-market prices. The Journal of Business, 38, 34–105.
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25, 383–417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
Fama, E. F., & MacBeth, J. D. (1973). Risk, return, and equilibrium: empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy, 81, 607–636. https://doi.org/10.1086/260061
Gigerenzer, G., & Gaissmaier, W. (2011). Heuristic decision making. Annual Review of Psychology, 62, 451–482. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346
Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic. Psychological Review, 109, 75–90. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.109.1.75
Graham, B., Dodd, D., & Buffett, W. (2008). Security analysis. McGraw Hill.
Guo, D., Boyle, P. P., Weng, C., & Wirjanto, T. S. (2019). When Does The 1/N Rule Work? Working Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3111531
Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. M. (2010). Rational choice in an uncertain world. SAGE Publications.
Hicks, J. R. (1946). Value and capital: an inquiry into some fundamental principles of economic theory. Oxford Universityersity Press.
Jacobs, H., Müller, S., & Weber, M. (2014). How should individual investors diversify? an empirical evaluation of alternative asset allocation policies. Journal of Financial Markets, 19, 62–85. 　　https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2013.07.004
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Penguin Books.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263–292. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
Malkiel, B. G. (2019). A random walk down wall street: the time-tested strategy for successful investing. W.W. Norton & Company.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7, 77–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974
McCammon, I., & Hägeli, P. (2007). An evaluation of rule-based decision tools for travel in avalanche terrain. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 47, 193–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2006.08.007
Mellers, B. A., Schwartz, A., & Cooke, A. D. J. (1998). Judgment and decision making. Annual Review of Psychology, 49, 447–477. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.psych.49.1.447
Messick, D. M., & Schell, T. (1992). Evidence for an equality heuristic in social decision making. Acta Psychologica, 80, 311–323. https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6918(92)90053-g
Murphy, J. J. (1999). Technical analysis of the financial markets: a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications. New York Institute of Finance.
Murstein, B. I. (2003). Regression to the mean: one of the most neglected but important concepts in the stock market. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 4, 234–237. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15427579jpfm0404_6
Muth, J. F. (1961). Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica, 29, 315–335. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909635
Natarajan, K., Sim, M., & Uichanco, J. (2010). Tractable robust expected utility and risk models for portfolio optimization. Mathematical Finance, 20, 695–731. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00417.x
Newell, A., & Simon, H. A. (1956). The logic theory machine-a complex information processing system. IRE Transactions on Information Theory, 2, 61-79. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.1956.1056797
Nison, S. (1991). Japanese candlestick charting techniques: a contemporary guide to the ancient investment techniques of the far east. Prentice Hall Press.
Nor, S. M., & Islam, S. M. N. (2017). Further examination of the 1/n portfolio rule: a comparison against Sharpe-optimal portfolios under varying constraints. Economic Annals-XXI, 166, 56–60. https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V166-11
Oppenheimer, D. M., & Kelso, E. (2015). Information processing as a paradigm for decision making. Annual Review of Psychology, 66, 277–294. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010814-015148
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. (2019). Pisa 2021 financial literacy analytical and assessment framework. https://www.oecd.org/pisa/sitedocument/PISA-2021-Financial-Literacy-Framework.pdf
Pitz, G. F., & Harren, V. A. (1980). An analysis of career decision making from the point of view of information processing and decision theory. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 16, 320–346. https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-8791(80)90059-7
Raviv, A. (1979). The design of an optimal insurance policy. The American Economic Review, 69, 84–96.
Samson, A. (2015). The behavioral economics guide 2015. Behavioral Economics Guide.
Schoemaker, P. (1982). The expected utility model: its variants, purposes, evidence and limitations. Journal of Economic Literature, 20, 529-563.
Shah, A. K., & Oppenheimer, D. M. (2008). Heuristics made easy: An effort-reduction framework. Psychological Bulletin, 134, 207–222. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.134.2.207
Simon, H. A. (1955). A behavioral model of rational choice. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69, 99–118. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884852
Snook, B., Taylor, P. J., & Bennell, C. (2004). Geographic profiling: the fast, frugal, and accurate way. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 18, 105–121. https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.956
Snook, B., Zito, M., Bennell, C., & Taylor, P. J. (2005). On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 21, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-004-1785-4
Thaler, R. (1980). Toward a positive theory of consumer choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1, 39–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(80)90051-7
Thaler, R. H. (2016). Misbehaving the making of behavioral economics. W.W. Norton & Company.
Todd, P. M., & Gigerenzer, G. (2012). Ecological rationality: intelligence in the world. Oxford University Press.
Van der Meer, M., Kurth-Nelson, Z., & Redish, A. D. (2012). Information processing in decision-making systems. The Neuroscientist: A Review Journal Bringing Neurobiology, Neurology and Psychiatry, 18, 342–359. https://doi.org/10.1177/1073858411435128
Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press.
Wongupparaj, P., Kumari, V., & Morris, R. G. (2015). The relation between a multicomponent working memory and intelligence: the roles of central executive and short-term storage functions. Intelligence, 53, 166–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2015.10.007