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研究生：	李柏翰
論文名稱：	雲量對全球水文循環的影響 - 中等複雜氣候模式模擬結果
指導教授：	陳正達 Chen, Cheng-Ta 王嘉琪 Wang, Chia-Chi 周佳 Chou, Chia
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年：	2013
畢業學年度：	101
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	75
中文關鍵詞：	全球平均降雨增加率、全球能量收支平衡、大氣輻射冷卻
論文種類：	學術論文
相關次數：	點閱：160 下載：13
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大氣中二氧化碳濃度增加所造成的暖化效應，不僅使地表和大氣溫度上升，同時也會改變全球的水文循環。根據氣候模式的模擬，暖化下全球平均降雨增加率會小於大氣柱水氣量的增加率，其原因為降雨的變化被全球能量的收支平衡所控制，其中以大氣的輻射冷卻與降雨所釋放的潛熱關係最為緊密。雲量對於輻射冷卻有非常大的影響，而現今的氣候模式對於雲的模擬存在著非常大的不確定性
。因此本研究設計一理想化的實驗，並控制深對流雲量，用以討論雲量對降雨變化率的影響。

　　實驗結果為，當雲量減少(增加)時，降雨變化率隨之增加(減少)。其原因為減少(增加)雲量時，大氣輻射冷卻增強(減弱)，為使大氣達到能量收支平衡所需的潛熱釋放也隨之增加(減少)，蒸發、大氣柱水氣量的變化率以及地表溫度的變化與降雨的變化有著相同的趨勢。不同的二氧化碳濃度，並不會改變降雨隨雲量的變化趨勢，差別在於較高濃度的二氧化碳實驗會使降雨變化率的改變量變小。

　　本研究亦分析觀測及模式資料的雲量在不同時間尺度下的變化。觀測資料的雲量變化沒有完全一致的表現，模式內的雲量在任何時間尺度之下變化都很小，同時模式明顯地低估了雲量的長期趨勢變化。

致謝.......................................................I
摘要......................................................II
目錄.....................................................III
圖表目錄...................................................V
第一章    前言...............................................1
第二章    研究方法...........................................4
2.1、資料..................................................4
2.1.1 觀測資料.............................................4
2.1.2 模式資料.............................................5
2.2、模式與實驗設計........................................5
2.2.1 模式介紹.............................................6
2.2.2 實驗設計.............................................8
2.2.3 QTCM1模擬的初步結果..................................8
2.3、全球能量平衡收支方程.................................10
2.3.1 大氣能量平衡式......................................10
2.3.2 地表能量平衡式......................................11
2.3.3 QTCM1大氣能量平衡修正...............................12
第三章    實驗結果..........................................14
3.1、雲量對降雨的影響.....................................14
3.2、水氣和能量的收支平衡.................................16
3.2.1 標準全球暖化實驗....................................16
3.2.2 雲量實驗............................................18
3.3、雲量實驗中能量收支平衡的變化.........................19
3.3.1 二倍二氧化碳實驗....................................19
(a)地表能量平衡...........................................19
(b)大氣能量平衡...........................................21
3.3.2 三倍與四倍二氧化碳實驗..............................22
(a)地表能量平衡...........................................22
(b)大氣能量平衡...........................................23
第四章    估計雲量在不同時間尺度的變化......................25
4.1、雲量的氣候平均值.....................................25
4.2、雲量的變化...........................................27
4.2.1 季節變化............................................27
4.2.2 年際變化............................................28
4.2.3 年代際變化..........................................29
4.2.4 長期趨勢............................................30
第五章    討論與結論........................................32
5.1、討論.................................................32
5.2、結論.................................................33
第六章    未來工作..........................................36
參考文獻..................................................37
圖表......................................................41
附錄......................................................66

                                

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