近年來全球暖化的趨勢越來越明顯，且全球之極端天氣事件發生頻率也有增加的現象，所以越來越多人關注全球暖化與極端天氣之間的關係。熱帶氣旋為極端天氣現象之一，且對台灣威脅甚大，所以我們希望探討長期氣候變遷對於侵台颱風降雨的影響。
本研究所使用的氣候差異值是由1990~2009平均減去1950~1969平均，使用的資料為美國國家環境預測中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction，簡稱NCEP) 之全球網格點再分析資料。本研究共討論兩個個案，分別為2008年9月14日辛樂克(Sinlaku)及2008年9月28日薔蜜(Jangmi)，個案一及個案二皆為西北行颱風，其強度皆達到強烈颱風等級，且颱風中心皆有登陸台灣本島，並造成台灣降下豪大雨。
本研究使用日本名古屋大學地球水循環研究中心所發展的雲解析風暴模式(Cloud-Resolviing Storm Simulator，簡稱CReSS)模式，針對個案颱風進行高時空解析度之控制模擬。再進行改變初始場、側邊界條件及海溫之敏感度實驗，模擬相同個案颱風生成於四十年前。再將此模擬結果與控制實驗做比較，即可定量評估長期氣候變遷對於颱風降雨之影響。
研究結果顯示，長期氣候變遷造成颱風累積雨量增加約4至7 %，且強降雨增加約10至20 %；弱降雨則有增有減，但變化幅度約在正負10 %之間。但在颱風強度及路徑上，控制實驗與敏感度實驗差異並不明顯。對於台灣而言，降雨變化應該還是受颱風路徑、台灣地形作用及西南氣流等因素影響。

周仲島、蔡長泰、陳永明、張智北、張麒偉及楊明風，2006：氣候變遷對災害防治衝擊調適與因應策略整合研究--子計畫:台灣地區劇烈降雨與侵台颱風變異趨勢與辨識研究(I)。
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