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研究生: 張雅惠
Ya-Hui Chang
論文名稱: 兩類型聖嬰對西北太平洋氣旋活動影響之模擬
Simulated Impacts of Two Types of El Niño on the Tropical Cyclone Activity over Northwest Pacific
指導教授: 陳正達
Chen, Cheng-Ta
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 74
中文關鍵詞: 中太平洋聖嬰東太平洋聖嬰熱帶氣旋西北太平洋
英文關鍵詞: CP El Niño, EP El Niño, Tropical Cyclone, Northwest Pacific
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:142下載:30
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  • 許多研究中發現在熱帶太平洋上,有兩種不同類型的聖嬰-南方振盪(El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)事件,並且在近年來吸引了不少相關主題的研究和熱烈的討論。在這些研究當中,也重新的審視了聖嬰-南方振盪所造成的影響,探討東太平洋聖嬰(EP El Niño)及中太平洋聖嬰(CP El Niño)對於全球氣候影響的差異。而在我們分析觀測資料的結果中同樣發現,在兩類聖嬰事件中,不同的海表面異常增溫位置,會造成大尺度環境有不同的反應,而其不同距平的分布差異,會進而影響西北太平洋熱帶氣旋活動頻率的距平分布。
    本篇研究的目標為根據在近幾十年有限觀測資料下定義出的事件中,檢驗模式重現在兩類El Niño下環境場以及熱帶氣旋活動的能力。研究中以觀測及合成之典型EP El Niño、CP El Niño事件和氣候平均之海表面溫度,作為驅動馬克斯-普朗克研究室發展的全球模式(Max Plank Institute global climate model, ECHAM5)之邊界條件,並且同時與ECHAM5 AMIP-type長期模擬結果下的合成EP El Niño和CP El Niño 事件做比較。從西北太平洋熱帶氣旋活動模擬結果的分析中,我們發現CP El Niño事件下,有較好的模擬表現,而在EP El Niño事件的模擬下,則是在西北太平洋西北象限會產生偏差。此外,從模擬的結果中也可以發現,模式大致上可以掌握住在兩類型聖嬰現象下,主要的大尺度環流場距平特徵。

    Recently the phenomenon about the existence of two different types of El Niño occurred in tropical Pacific have attracted many studies on the topics and intensive debates. Following these works, whether there are also distinct impacts to global climate from the Eastern-Pacific (EP) and Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño had drawn lots of studies to revisit the ENSO influences. In this study, we analyze the observed events from 59 years(1951-2009)and investigate the different tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and large-scale circulation features between the two types of El Niño in the Western North Pacific.
    Our study aims at the examination on the model capability in reproducing the findings from limited observed events in the past few decades. We use the composites of SST distribution and evolution under the typical EP El Niño and CP El Niño as well as the normal condition for the boundary conditions to drive the Max Plank Institute global climate model (ECHAM5) in this study. And the results are also compared with composite of EP El Niño and CP El Niño events sampled from the century long AMIP-type simulation from ECHAM5.

    致謝 ………………………………………………………………………………I 中文摘要.…………………………………………………………………………II Abstract…..………………………………………………………………………III 目錄………………………………………………………………………………IV 表目錄……………………………………………………………………………VI 圖目錄..………………………………………………………………………...VIII 第一章 前言..……………………………………………………………………1 1.1 文獻回顧………….…………………………………………………1 1.1.1 ENSO與大尺度環流.…………………………………………1 1.1.2 ENSO與西北太平洋熱帶氣旋.………………………………3 1.1.3 兩種類型的聖嬰現象…………………………………………4 1.1.4 兩類聖嬰與西北太平洋熱帶氣旋……………………………6 1.2 研究動機與目的.……………………………………………………7 1.3 論文架構.……………………………………………………………8 第二章 資料、模式與研究方法…………………………………………………9 2.1 資料介紹.……………………………………………………………9 2.1.1 颱風資料………………………………………………………9 2.1.2 大氣資料………………………………………………………9 2.1.3 海洋資料..……………………………………………………10 2.2 模式介紹...…………………………………………………………10 2.2.1 ECHAM5…………………………………………………….10 2.2.2 模式熱帶氣旋判斷…………………………………………..11 2.3 研究方法...…………………………………………………………12 2.3.1 聖嬰個案選取方式……..……………………………………12 2.3.2 模擬實驗………..……………………………………………13 2.3.3 T-test檢定……………………………………………………13 第三章 兩類聖嬰之影響差異…………………………………………………15 3.1 西北太平洋熱帶氣旋分析探討...…………………………………15 3.1.1 生成個數及頻率分布……..…………………………………16 3.1.2 活動頻率距平分布…………..………………………………17 3.2 大尺度環境場分析探討..………….………………………………17 3.2.1 垂直環流場分析………………..……………………………18 3.2.2 水平環流場分析…..…………………………………………18 3.3 物理過程探討...……………………………………………………20 第四章 實驗模擬結果與分析…………………………………………………22 4.1 大尺度環境場分析探討...…………………………………………23 4.1.1 垂直環流場分析..……………………………………………23 4.1.2 水平環流場分析..……………………………………………24 4.2 西北太平洋熱帶氣旋模擬結果分析...……………………………25 4.2.1 生成個數及頻率距平分布..…………………………………26 4.2.2 活動頻率距平分布..…………………………………………27 4.3 模擬結果討論...……………………………………………………27 第五章 討論與結論……………………………………………………………29 參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………33 附表………………………………………………………………………………39 附圖………………………………………………………………………………45

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