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研究生： 姜欣妤
Chiang, Hsin-Yu
論文名稱： 不同颱風生成指數對西北太平洋颱風生成數的突變之評估
Estimate Abrupt Change of Typhoon Numbers Over the Western North Pacific by Different Genesis Potential Index
指導教授： 鄒治華
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年： 2016
畢業學年度： 104
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 62
中文關鍵詞： 西北太平洋 、颱風潛在生成指數 、CMIP5模式
DOI URL： https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202205154
論文種類： 學術論文
相關次數： 點閱：116  下載：23 
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    • 西北太平洋颱風生成數於1990年代有突變的現象，1994年以後的颱風生成數目大幅減少。大尺度環境參數是影響颱風生成的因素。因此本研究採用兩種包含不同環境因子的颱風生成指數(GPI與χGPI)，以推估影響西北太平洋颱風活動突變特徵的主要環境因素。其中，χGPI中的參數χ代表自由對流層的飽和差。 本研究並將GPI與χGPI的渦度項作了修正，發展新的颱風生成指數(modified-GPI與modified-χGPI)，以期生成指數能反應實際颱風活動特徵。
    分析結果顯示，GPI與χGPI皆未能掌握後期颱風生成數目大幅減少的特徵，而modified-GPI與modified-χGPI皆掌握1994年後颱風生成數目減少之趨勢。造成後期GPI(χGPI)總值增加與實際颱風生成數目相反的因素，主要來自600百帕相對濕度(χ)與垂直風切的貢獻。而造成後期modified-GPI與modified-χGPI總值減少，與實際颱風生成數目的變化一致，主要貢獻皆為相對渦度，即後期颱風生成數目大幅減少的趨勢，主要是受到季風槽減弱的影響，而非導致GPI(χGPI)指數增加的相對濕度(χ)效應。
    本研究評估了上述四個指數的CMIP5模式系集結果，採用全球大氣環流模式(AGCM)中六個模式historical run的部分。評估模式系集之生成指數的變化特徵，發現GPI、χGPI與modified-GPI皆無法反應兩階段颱風生成數目的變化，僅modified-χGPI則掌握了1990年代以後颱風生成數目減少的趨勢。此外，模式系集之modified-χGPI也掌握了兩階段颱風生成之空間分佈。因此，modified-χGPI的表現最佳，且可反應實際颱風生成數目之氣候特徵與1990年代的突變現象。

    目 錄 摘要. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I 致謝. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . II 目錄. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . III 圖表目錄. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . IV 第一章 前言. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 第二章 資料模式、與研究方法. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.1 資料介紹. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.2 颱風生成指數介紹. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 第三章 颱風生成數與生成指數之氣候分佈. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3.1 大尺度環境場之氣候分佈. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 3.2 颱風生成指數之氣候分佈. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 第四章 颱風生成數與生成指數之突變. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 4.1 颱風生成指數之突變. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 4.2 大尺度環境場之突變. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 第五章 CMIP5模式模擬. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 5.1 大尺度環境場之模式評估. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 5.2 颱風生成指數之模式評估. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 第六章 結論. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 參考文獻. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 附圖表. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38

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