颱風模擬對西北太平洋地區有其重要性，故本研究採用Emanuel et al.(2006)提出一種不需龐大計算資源，即可精確模擬大西洋颶風軌跡長期變化的降尺度方法，來模擬西北太平洋熱帶風暴軌跡。由於西北太平洋與大西洋的大尺度背景風場不盡相同，為探討駛流層高度、β偏移效應及季內震盪對西北太平洋氣旋軌跡的影響，因此本研究調整Emanuel方法，共設計六種熱帶風暴軌跡降尺度方法。
西北太平洋熱帶風暴氣候軌跡可分為向西北、向西與向北轉向三種，因此本研究將颱風侵襲區域分為向西北影響台灣與中國東部沿海之A區、向西行至菲律賓之B區，及向北轉向影響日本之C區。結果顯示850 hPa和200 hPa加權與850 hPa至300 hPa平均質量加權之兩種駛流層，皆適用於西北太平洋地區。而隨緯度增加向北分量的β偏移數值，可改善等值β偏移之模擬軌跡移速。季內振盪對130 oE以西影響顯著，增加向西北移行影響台灣之軌跡，明顯改進夏秋兩季熱帶風暴影響在A區的氣候模擬。
熱帶風暴影響三大區域皆有明顯年際變化，然而A區秋季有緩慢上升趨勢，C區有年代際震盪訊號，B區長期訊號則不明顯。降尺度方法在年際變化模擬，可掌握三區域大致隨時間變化趨勢，夏季整體模擬較秋季佳。影響台灣與中國東部的A區模擬，兩季皆以10天以上低頻訊號環境風場較為適用，亦掌握到秋季緩慢增加趨勢；侵襲日本之C區模擬，以月平均風場為環境流場方法較佳。顯示季內振盪與太平洋副高分別是影響颱風向西北與向北轉向的重要因素。
本研究建立之降尺度方法，基本上可掌握西北太平洋地區夏秋兩季氣候熱帶風暴軌跡特徵，以及熱帶風暴影響區域之氣候場與年際變化。因此若大尺度風場與季內震盪模擬良好，可利用本研究降尺度方法來模擬熱帶風暴軌跡。

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