本研究目的在探討，西北太平洋地區颱風數量之年際變化。經由計算海表面溫度與颱風數量間之相關係數發現，西北太平洋颱風數量之年際變化與Niño3.4海溫相關不大。但與東北太平洋及北印度洋海溫之間，分別存在高度正相關與高度負相關。由NCEP觀測資料分析結果發現，颱風不活躍年季風槽及低層正渦度減弱，副熱帶高壓增強，在西北太平洋形成不利於颱風生成的環境。
本研究進一步使用Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)區域氣候模式，30公里水平解析度，設計NWP(105°E-180°，0°-40°N)、NP(105°E-120°W，5°S-45°N)及IOP(45°E-185°W，20°S-40°N)三組不同範圍之模擬實驗，針對2000-2010年夏、秋兩季進行區域氣候模擬，以討論中、東太平洋及印度洋海陸效應與青藏高原對於西北太平洋颱風數量年際變化之影響。三組模擬實驗皆能掌握季風槽與副熱帶高壓等大尺度環流之主要氣候特徵。NWP實驗與NP實驗模擬中，季風槽與低層正渦度模擬過強，颱風模擬數量較觀測偏多。雖然兩者在大尺度環流場與颱風數量之氣候模擬結果相似，NP在颱風數量年際變化的模擬較NWP佳，表示中、東太平洋海溫是影響颱風數量的重要因素之一。然而包含印度洋的IOP實驗，能更有效改善氣候場與颱風數量年際變化之模擬能力，在季風槽強度與颱風數量年際變化模擬結果與觀測較為接近。此結果顯示，印度洋海溫、海陸效應與青藏高原，對於颱風數量年際變化之影響較中、東太平洋更為關鍵。
本研究進一步選取颱風數量最少、印度洋較暖的2010年，進行北印度洋增溫與北印度洋加倍增溫，五組成員之系集模擬實驗，探討北印度洋增溫影響颱風數量變化之相關機制。結果顯示，2010年當北印度洋較暖，但海陸溫差增大，故並非使季風槽減弱的主要因素。而可能透過Kelvin wave東傳，並在西北太平洋地區產生低層反氣旋式環流與負渦度距平，形成不利於颱風生成之大尺度環境。此外，2010年在西北太平洋海溫正距平的狀況下，北印度洋海溫的增暖所伴隨的東風距平，抵消氣候盛行之西風使風速減弱，將造成西北太平洋地區海洋提供大氣之潛熱通量減少，產生不利於颱風生成的條件。此應為印度洋增暖與西北太平洋颱風數量遙相關的重要因素之一。

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