本研究分析太平洋地區颱風活動之年際變化，發現過去近60年的颱風活動經滑動平均後，秋強颱呈現明顯的旬年際變化現象，最近一次颱風活動旬年際變化的高、(低)頻段分別出現在90~94與74~78年。分析結果顯示在秋颱活動相異的兩時期之間，颱風源生區差異主要在(160°E~180°E,0°N~20°N)，且西太平洋地區秋強颱活動受中~東太平洋環境異動影響較大，而非僅侷限於西太平洋地區的環境變化。而秋強颱活動的旬年際變化現象和中東太平洋地區SST、環境水氣含量及對流層頂溫度旬年際變化呈正相關，而和太平洋MSLP呈負相關。

本文進一步利用MPI公式來計算兩時期秋颱的最大潛在強度。我們發現MPI理論能反應秋颱發展強度上的特性，但在MPI定量計算上則需對部分參數運用上進行調整。在秋颱颱活動期，SST和對流層頂同步增溫現象，所以兩參數對εfator的影響會相互抵銷，然而高海溫和高水氣含量能提供較多能量以利颱風發展，對颱風潛在發展強度影響較大，因此本研究於計算上保留SST、MSLP旬年際變化，並簡化其餘環境參數為氣候狀態。此調整結果已能反應秋強颱旬年際變化情形。

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