本論文的研究目的為應用ordered probit模型預測公司發生財務危機的機率，以1998年至2018年為研究期間，建立更精確之財務危機預測模型。本文以財務危機發生前一年度的財務比率、公司治理與總體經濟變數資料進行實證分析，使用110家財務危機公司與110家財務正常公司為研究樣本。其中，財務危機公司又分為47家實質財務危機公司與63家準財務危機公司。
實證結果發現，公司的財務表現、董事會特性以及經理人職能的確會影響財務危機發生的機率，而股權結構與總體經濟因素確實與公司發生財務危機具有關聯性。最後，本研究結果顯示，由財務比率、公司治理與總體經濟變數所建立的模型，對公司發生財務危機的預測能力是較佳的。

The purpose of research is to apply the ordered probit model to predict the probability of firm's financial distress during the period 1998-2018, and develops a more accurate financial distress prediction model. The estimated models use the financial ratio, corporate governance information, and macro-economic variables. The research samples are 110 financially distressed firms and 110 healthy firms. Among them, financially distressed firms are further divided into 47 substantial financially distressed firms and 63 quasi financially distressed firms.
The empirical results find that the firm's financial performance, board characteristics and manager’s education levels will indeed affect the probability of financial distress, and the ownership structure and the macro-economic factors also are a relevant to the occurrence of the financial distress. Finally, the research also proves that the model established by the financial ratio, corporate governance information and macro-economic variables has better accuracy to predict the financial distress of the firm.

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Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131.
Platt, H. D., & Platt, M. B. (2002). Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: Reflections on Choice-based Sample Bias. Journal of Economics and Finance, 26(2), 184-199.
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Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4, 71-111.
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McKelvey, R. D., & Zavoina, W. (1975). A Statistical Model for the Analysis of Ordinal Level Dependent Variables. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 4(1), 103-120.
Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131.
Platt, H. D., & Platt, M. B. (2002). Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: Reflections on Choice-based Sample Bias. Journal of Economics and Finance, 26(2), 184-199.
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Yong, L. Z. (2014). Predicting Financial Distress Using Corporate Efficiency and Corporate Governance Measures. University of Edinburgh.
 
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