摘要 本文主要探討台灣地區主要測站溫度、雨量的長期變化，及其與大氣、海洋間的交互作用。利用中央氣象局全省的測站資料，來進行溫度、雨量的時序列分析，由於測站資料時間長短不一致，我們將溫度資料分成長於及短於五十年、雨量長於及短於九十年兩組，進行回歸分析、統計檢驗及利用傅利葉波譜分析法求出週期，結果發現測站溫度不論四季或全年都有明顯的上升趨勢，其中以資料長於五十年的測站較明顯。雨量則是北部地區有增加的趨勢，南部地區則是減少，但是雨量較無明顯的變化趨勢，回歸分析通過統計顯著性檢驗的很少。週期變化方面，春、夏、秋三季溫度除了有長週期之外，還有小於十年的短週期振盪，冬季溫度變化則是以短週期變化為主。雨量變化的週期大部分都短於十年，比較特別的是，秋季雨量有十年以上的週期，幾乎每個測站都有。 接著我們再利用多頻道奇波譜分析法（MSSA）將長週期的資料抽離（extract）出來，將其與海溫、低層環流作相關係數分析，得到台灣地區溫度與附近海溫及太平洋周圍海溫呈現正相關，再配合流函數及風場的資料分析發現，北太平洋副熱帶高壓的順時鐘環流及夏季季風的強弱和台灣地區溫度、雨量變化有相關性，上述兩系統減弱會使台灣地區溫度升高及雨量減少，這種情況在夏季明顯。其他季節溫度與雨量的變化海溫及低層環流的相關性較低。

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