簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 王宇軒
Wang, Yu-Hsuan
論文名稱: 模糊性對相對高低估之影響-不同投資者關注程度之情境分析
The Influence of Ambiguity on Relative Overvaluation and Undervaluation: A Scenario Analysis Across Different Levels of Investor Attention
指導教授: 蔡蒔銓
Tsai, Shih-Chuant
口試委員: 蔡蒔銓
Tsai, Shih-Chuant
何耕宇
Ho, Keng-Yu
江彌修
Chiang, Mi-Hsiu
口試日期: 2024/06/18
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 48
中文關鍵詞: 模糊性投資人關注度相對估值程度錯誤定價
英文關鍵詞: Ambiguity, Investor Attention, Relative Valuation, Mispricing
研究方法: 實驗設計法
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202400714
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:151下載:0
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 本研究旨在探討個股模糊性對於相對高估與相對低估程度的作用,為理解投資人關注度是否為其中影響之途徑,設定高模糊性與高投資人關注度之情境進行分析.本研究以2009年1月至2019年12月作為樣本期間,並選用台灣證券交易所定義之台灣上市公司作為樣本進行實證分析,實證結果顯示(1)個股模糊性對相對高估與相對低估的負向關係(2)高模糊性與高投資人關注度之情境分析對於相對高估程度具有正向關係;對於相對低估程度則沒有關係,顯現出套利不對稱性對此現象的影響(3)個股模糊性對相對高估與相對低估程度具有預測效果,且此效果可以維持到至少三個月.本研究證實了個股模糊性與相對估值程度的作用,並闡釋了投資人關注度在其中的影響.

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of individual stock ambiguity on the degree of relative overvaluation and undervaluation. To understand whether investor attention operates as a mediating factor, scenarios of high ambiguity and high investor attention are analyzed. The sample period for this study is from January 2009 to December 2019, using Taiwan-listed companies as defined by the Taiwan Stock Exchange for empirical analysis. The empirical results show that:
    1. Negative Relationship between Ambiguity and Valuation: Individual stock ambiguity has a negative relationship with the degree of both relative overvaluation and undervaluation.
    2. High Ambiguity and High Investor Attention Context: In contexts of high ambiguity and high investor attention, there is a positive relationship with the degree of relative overvaluation. For relative undervaluation, there is no significant relationship between high ambiguity and high investor attention, indicating the phenomenon of arbitrage asymmetry.
    3. Predictive Power of Ambiguity: Individual stock ambiguity can predict relative overvaluation and undervaluation, and this effect can be maintained for at least three months.
    This study confirms the role of stock ambiguity in relative valuation and explains the effect of investor attention within this context.

    致謝辭 i 摘要 ii Abstract iii 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景及動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究流程 4 第二章 文獻探討 5 第一節 相對估值 5 第二節 模糊性 7 第三節 投資人關注度 9 第三章 研究方法 11 第一節 資料來源及樣本選取 11 第二節 研究假說 11 第三節 變數定義及說明 13 第四節 模型設定 26 第四章 實證結果及分析 28 第一節 敘述統計 28 第二節 迴歸結果分析 32 第三節 穩健性測試 39 第五章 結論 42 第一節 研究結論 42 參考文獻 43

    黃瑞卿, 吳中書, 林金龍, & 蕭兆祥. (2012). 台灣企業財務危機因子的實證研究. 台灣金融財務季刊, 13(4), 55-77.
    Ahmed, A. S., Neel, M. J., & Safdar, I. (2023b). Why Does Operating Profitability Predict Returns? New Evidence on Risk versus Mispricing Explanations. Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4567087
    Ali, A., Hwang, L. S., & Trombley, M. A. (2003b). Residual-Income-Based Valuation Predicts Future Stock Returns: Evidence on Mispricing vs. Risk Explanations. the Accounting Review/the Accounting Review, 78(2), 377–396. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2003.78.2.377
    Al-Najjar, N. I., & Weinstein, J. (2009b). The Ambiguity Aversion Literature: A Critical Assessment. Economics and Philosophy, 25(3), 249–284. https://doi.org/10.1017/s026626710999023x
    Amihud, Y. (2002b). Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects. Journal of Financial Markets, 5(1), 31–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1386-4181(01)00024-6
    Anderson, E. W., Ghysels, E., & Juergens, J. L. (2009b). The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 94(2), 233–263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2008.11.001
    Andrei, D., Friedman, H., & Ozel, N. B. (2023). Economic uncertainty and investor attention. Journal of Financial Economics, 149(2), 179–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.05.003
    Audrino, F., Sigrist, F., & Ballinari, D. (2020). The impact of sentiment and attention measures on stock market volatility. International Journal of Forecasting, 36(2), 334–357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.010
    Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007b). Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market. the Journal of Economic Perspectives/the Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129–151. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.2.129
    Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2007). All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors. Review of Financial Studies/the Review of Financial Studies, 21(2), 785–818. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhm079
    Bartov, E., & Kim, M. (2004b). Risk, Mispricing, and Value Investing. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 23(4), 353–376. https://doi.org/10.1023/b:requ.0000049321.34133.95
    Basak, S., & Croitoru, B. (2000b). Equilibrium Mispricing in a Capital Market with Portfolio Constraints. Review of Financial Studies/the Review of Financial Studies, 13(3), 715–748. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/13.3.715
    Ben-Rephael, A., Da, Z., & Israelsen, R. D. (2017). It Depends on Where You Search: Institutional Investor Attention and Underreaction to News. Review of Financial Studies/the Review of Financial Studies, 30(9), 3009–3047. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx031
    Bird, R., Choi, D. F. S., & Yeung, D. (2013b). Market uncertainty, market sentiment, and the post-earnings announcement drift. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 43(1), 45–73. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-013-0364-x
    Birru, J., & Young, T. (2022b). Sentiment and uncertainty. Journal of Financial Economics, 146(3), 1148–1169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.05.005
    Brennan, M. J., & Wang, A. W. (2010b). The Mispricing Return Premium. Review of Financial Studies/the Review of Financial Studies, 23(9), 3437–3468. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq064
    Brenner, M., & Izhakian, Y. (2018). Asset pricing and ambiguity: Empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 130(3), 503–531. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.07.007
    Bucher, M. (2017). Investor Attention and Sentiment: Risk or Anomaly? Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2990038
    Burzoni, M., & Maggis, M. (2020b). Arbitrage-free modeling under Knightian uncertainty. Mathematics and Financial Economics, 14(4), 635–659. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11579-020-00267-w
    Burzoni, M., Frittelli, M., & Maggis, M. (2015b). Universal arbitrage aggregator in discrete-time markets under uncertainty. Finance and Stochastics, 20(1), 1–50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-015-0283-x
    Cao, Z., Chelikani, S., Kilic, O., & Wang, X. (2022). Implied Volatility Spread and Stock Mispricing. the Journal of Behavioral Finance, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2022.2085278
    Chang, X., Tam, L. H., Tan, T. J., & Wong, G. (2007). The real impact of stock market mispricing — Evidence from Australia. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 15(4), 388–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2006.06.003
    Chen, C. R., Lung, P. P., & Wang, F. A. (2008b). Mispricing and the cross-section of stock returns. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 32(4), 317–349. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-008-0097-4
    Chen, J., Tang, G., Yao, J., & Zhou, G. (2021). Investor Attention and Stock Returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 57(2), 455–484. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022109021000090
    Chen, L., Qin, L., & Zhu, H. (2015). Opinion divergence, unexpected trading volume and stock returns: Evidence from China. International Review of Economics & Finance, 36, 119–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2014.11.012
    Cohen, R. B., Polk, C., & Vuolteenaho, T. (2002b). Does Risk or Mispricing Explain the Cross-Section of Stock Prices. Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.301782
    Collard, F., Mukerji, S., Sheppard, K., & Tallon, J. M. (2018b). Ambiguity and the historical equity premium. Quantitative Economics, 9(2), 945–993. https://doi.org/10.3982/qe708
    Daniel, K. D., Hirshleifer, D., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2001b). Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing. the Journal of Finance/the Journal of Finance, 56(3), 921–965. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00350
    Dicks, D., & Fulghieri, P. (2020c). Uncertainty, Investor Sentiment, and Innovation. Review of Financial Studies/the Review of Financial Studies, 34(3), 1236–1279. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa065
    Dimmock, S. G., Kouwenberg, R., Mitchell, O. S., & Peijnenburg, K. (2016). Ambiguity aversion and household portfolio choice puzzles: Empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 119(3), 559–577. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.003
    Ellsberg, D. (1961). Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms. the Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75(4), 643. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884324
    Gong, Q., & Diao, X. (2021b). Bounded rationality, asymmetric information and mispricing in financial markets. Economic Theory, 74(1), 235–264. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-021-01366-5
    Guidolin, M., & Ricci, A. (2020c). Arbitrage risk and a sentiment as causes of persistent mispricing: The European evidence. the Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2019.05.006
    Haija, A. a. A., & Lahyani, R. (2023b). Dynamic interactions of actual stock returns with forecasted stock returns and investors’ risk aversion: empirical evidence interplaying the impact of Covid-19 pandemic. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 61(3), 1129–1149. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-023-01181-0
    Hamao, Y., & Hasbrouck, J. (1995b). Securities Trading in the Absence of Dealers: Trades and Quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Review of Financial Studies/the Review of Financial Studies, 8(3), 849–878. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/8.3.849
    Han, Y., Huang, D., Huang, D., & Zhou, G. (2022b). Expected return, volume, and mispricing. Journal of Financial Economics, 143(3), 1295–1315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.014
    Hirshleifer, D., Lim, S. S., & Teoh, S. H. (2011). Limited Investor Attention and Stock Market Misreactions to Accounting Information. the Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 1(1), 35–73. https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/rar002
    Hur, J., & Singh, V. (2021). The role of investor attention in idiosyncratic volatility puzzle and new results. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 58(1), 409–434. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-021-00999-w
    Izhakian, Y. (2020b). A theoretical foundation of ambiguity measurement. Journal of Economic Theory, 187, 105001. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2020.105001
    Jaffe, J. F., Jindra, J., Pedersen, D. J., & Voetmann, T. (2019b). Can mispricing explain the value premium? Financial Management, 49(3), 615–633. https://doi.org/10.1111/fima.12272
    Jiang, L., Liu, J., Peng, L., & Wang, B. (2021b). Investor Attention and Asset Pricing Anomalies. Review of Finance, 26(3), 563–593. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfab032
    Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80(4), 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0034747
    Keloharju, M., Linnainmaa, J. T., & Nyberg, P. (2021b). Are return seasonalities due to risk or mispricing? Journal of Financial Economics, 139(1), 138–161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.07.009
    Kostopoulos, D., Meyer, S., & Uhr, C. (2022). Ambiguity about volatility and investor behavior. Journal of Financial Economics, 145(1), 277–296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.07.004
    Kumari, J. (2016b). Conceptual Framework: Factors Affecting for Workplace Job Performances. IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 18(10), 99–101. https://doi.org/10.9790/487x-18100399101
    Lee, J. (2021b). Information Asymmetry, Mispricing, and Security Issuance. the Journal of Finance/the Journal of Finance, 76(6), 3401–3446. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13066
    Li, C. W., Tiwari, A., & Tong, L. (2017). Investment Decisions Under Ambiguity: Evidence from Mutual Fund Investor Behavior. Management Science, 63(8), 2509–2528. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2432
    Li, J., & Yu, J. (2012). Investor attention, psychological anchors, and stock return predictability. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(2), 401–419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.04.003
    Lou, D. (2014c). Attracting Investor Attention through Advertising. Review of Financial Studies/the Review of Financial Studies, 27(6), 1797–1829. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhu019
    Luo, D. (2023b). Ambiguity, Risk, and Sentiment. Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4336463
    Mbanga, C., Darrat, A. F., & Park, J. C. (2018). Investor sentiment and aggregate stock returns: the role of investor attention. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 53(2), 397–428. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-018-0753-2
    McKiernan, B. (1997b). Uncertainty and the arbitrage pricing theory. Atlantic Economic Journal, 25(3), 307–311. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02298412
    Nguyen, H. T., & Pham, M. H. (2021). Does investor attention matter for market anomalies? Journal of Behavioural and Experimental Finance, 29, 100451. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100451
    Pontiff, J. (2006b). Costly arbitrage and the myth of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Accounting & Economics/Journal of Accounting and Economics, 42(1–2), 35–52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2006.04.002
    Prapan, A. A., & Vagenas-Nanos, E. (2022b). Overnight Returns: Investor Sentiment or Investor Attention? Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4015493
    Rizkiana, A., Hasrini, S., Hardjomidjojo, P., Prihartono, B., Sunaryo, I., & Prasetyo, I. R. (2018b). Lead-Lag Relationship between Investor Sentiment in Social Media9 Investor Attention in Google, and Stock Return. https://doi.org/10.1109/icdim.2018.8847094
    Sadka, R., & Scherbina, A. (2007b). Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing, and Liquidity*. the Journal of Finance/the Journal of Finance, 62(5), 2367–2403. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01278.x
    Shear, F., Ashraf, B. N., & Sadaqat, M. (2020b). Are Investors’ Attention and Uncertainty Aversion the Risk Factors for Stock Markets? International Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis. Risks, 9(1), 2. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9010002
    Siering, M. (2013b). Investigating the Impact of Media Sentiment and Investor Attention on Financial Markets. In Lecture notes in business information processing (pp. 3–19). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36219-4_1
    Sing, N. B., & Singh, R. G. (2022). Investor attention and reaction in COVID-19 crisis: sentiment analysis in the Indian stock market. Managerial Finance, 49(3), 470–491. https://doi.org/10.1108/mf-06-2021-0258
    Stambaugh, R. F., & Yuan, Y. (2016b). Mispricing Factors. Review of Financial Studies/the Review of Financial Studies, 30(4), 1270–1315. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhw107
    Stambaugh, R. F., Yu, J., & Yuan, Y. (2015c). Arbitrage Asymmetry and the Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle. the Journal of Finance/the Journal of Finance, 70(5), 1903–1948. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12286
    Ter Ellen, S., Verschoor, W. F., & Zwinkels, R. C. (2019). Agreeing on disagreement: Heterogeneity or uncertainty? Journal of Financial Markets, 44, 17–30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2019.02.002
    Traeger, C. P. (2014b). Why uncertainty matters: discounting under intertemporal risk aversion and ambiguity. Economic Theory, 56(3), 627–664. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-014-0800-8
    Ui, T. (2010b). The Ambiguity Premium vs. the Risk Premium under Limited Market Participation*. European Finance Review, 15(2), 245–275. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfq012
    Vakrman, T., & Kristoufek, L. (2015). Underpricing, underperformance and overreaction in initial public offerings: Evidence from investor attention using online searches. SpringerPlus, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-015-0839-4
    Wang, F., & Zheng, L. (2023b). Arbitrage asymmetry, mispricing and the illiquidity premium. European Financial Management. https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.12462
    Xie, H. (2001b). The Mispricing of Abnormal Accruals. the Accounting Review/the Accounting Review, 76(3), 357–373. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2001.76.3.357
    Xu, Y. H. (2017b). Robust Valuation, Arbitrage Ambiguity and Profit & Loss Analysis. Journal of the Operations Research Society of China, 6(1), 59–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40305-017-0181-3
    Yadav, P. K., & Pope, P. F. (1994b). Stock index futures mispricing: profit opportunities or risk premia? Journal of Banking & Finance, 18(5), 921–953. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(94)00026-3
    Yuan, Y. (2015). Market-wide attention, trading, and stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 116(3), 548–564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.03.006
    Zhang, X., & Zhang, W. (2023b). Information asymmetry, sentiment interactions, and asset price. the North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 67, 101920. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2023.101920

    無法下載圖示 電子全文延後公開
    2025/06/30
    QR CODE