本文針對莫拉克颱風(2009)的環流結構對台灣降水之貢獻作探討，藉由片段位渦反演的方法，改變颱風伴隨的位渦擾動場與環流等。其中改變的方式有(1)調整環流大小、(2)改變環流強度、(3)改變外圍環流強度等三種，共8項結構調整之組合。調整後，使用雲解析風暴模式(Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator，簡稱CReSS)進行控制模擬與敏感度測試實驗，以進一步探討不同的颱風環流結構對於台灣降水之影響為何？模擬結果顯示，颱風環流未作任何調整之控制實驗，不論路徑、移動速度、颱風強度變化或降雨情形，都與觀測相近。至於其他各項環流的改變，調整(減弱)越多的實驗中，西南氣流可以越早影響台灣，與颱風環流的輻合區越為偏北，不僅造成中南部山區強降雨提早發生，也會延長登陸期間的時間。這些實驗中登陸期間全台各地降水增多，而離陸階段的時間則會縮短，使得南部山區降水減少，此與莫拉克颱風實際的降雨集中於南部山區的特徵有所不同。另外，在調整(減弱)越多的實驗中，颱風在實驗初期內縮增強的現象也會越明顯，此役反應造成靠近颱風中心的降雨增加。
其中，比較降水較強的兩個時段(登陸期間以及離陸階段)之累積雨量，環流調整(減弱)較少的實驗中，降雨型態與控制實驗差異不大。但外圍環流強度減得較弱的實驗，其降雨型態則與控制實驗有明顯不同，強降水區的降雨會比控制實驗減少16%，但台灣全區的平均累積雨量則增加10%以上。此一改變可以說明，颱風外圍環流對台灣南部山區的強降水有顯著的貢獻，因此，若莫拉克颱風外圍環流的強度較實際為弱，則台灣南部山區的災害可能因此而減少。

郭鴻基,林李耀,蘇世顥,陳郁涵,徐理寰,楊憶婷,2015：氣候變遷-台灣颱風豪雨解謎,自然科學簡訊第27卷第1期

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