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研究生: 吳佳緯
Wu, Chia-Wei
論文名稱: 自動駕駛車輛之新興科技預測:以專利分析法探討
Forecasting Emerging Technologies of Autonomous Vehicles: Use of Patent Analysis
指導教授: 蘇友珊
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工業教育學系
Department of Industrial Education
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 157
中文關鍵詞: 自動駕駛車輛專利分析生命週期理論羅吉斯成長模型費雪成長模型
英文關鍵詞: Autonomous Vehicle, Patent Analysis, Life Cycle Theory, Logistic Growth Model, Fisher-Pry Growth Model
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU201900987
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 本研究以專利分析法與技術生命週期之角度探討自動駕駛車輛及其相關等11項重點技術之技術發展趨勢。使用關鍵字、國際專利分類號與核准專利之公告日期作為專利檢索策略。本研究透過專利件數分析探討自動駕駛車輛產業以及各項技術之整體發展趨勢。透過國際專利分類碼分析,探討自動駕駛車輛以及各項技術所偏重之類別為何。藉由公司別分析,了解投入研發自動駕駛車輛以及各項技術領域之廠商為何。本研究以自動駕駛車輛及11項重點技術之累積專利數量作為衡量技術績效之專利指標,以羅吉斯成長模型 (Logistic Growth Model) 描述其技術生命週期,並以費雪成長模型 (Fisher-Pry Growth Model) 衡量技術滲透比率。研究結果指出,自動駕駛車輛、主動車距控制巡航系統 (Adaptive Cruise Control, ACC)、動力系統 (Propulsion System)、轉向系統 (Steering System) 及穩定系統 (Stability System) 目前為技術生命週期中成長期之階段;車道維持系統 (Lane Keeping Assist System, LKAS)、盲點偵測系統 (Blind Spot Detection, BSD)、自動停車輔助系統 (Active Parking Assist, APA)、輪速感知系統 (Wheel Speed Sensor)、都會行車輔助系統 (Traffic Jam Assist)、警告系統 (Warning System) 與光達 (Light Detection and Ranging, LIDAR),目前皆為技術生命週期中成熟期之階段。

    This study adopts patent analysis and life cycle perspectives to explore the technological trends of autonomous vehicles and 11 key technologies associated with autonomous vehicles. We use keywords, international patent classification, and the issue date of patents as a patent search strategy. The research explores the overall development trend of the autonomous vehicle industry and various technologies through the analysis of the number of patents. We explore the number of autonomous vehicles and various technical categories through international patent classification analysis. Through company analysis, this research analyzes the investment in the development of autonomous vehicles and manufacturers in various technical fields. The cumulative number of patents for autonomous vehicles and 11 key technologies are used as a measure of technical performance. The life cycle is described by the Logistic Growth Model and the technical penetration ratio is measured by the Fisher-Pry Growth Model. The results of this study indicate that autonomous vehicles, the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), the Propulsion System, the Steering System, and the Stability System are currently in the growth stage. Lane Keeping Assist System (LKAS), Blind Spot Detection (BSD), Active Parking Assist (APA), Wheel Speed Sensor, Traffic Jam Assist, Warning System and Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) are currently in maturity stage.

    摘要 i Abstract ii 目次 iii 表次 v 圖次 viii 第一章 導論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第二章 文獻探討 5 第一節 自動駕駛車輛 5 第二節 專利分析 21 第三節 生命週期理論 25 第三章 研究方法 31 第一節 研究架構 31 第二節 操作型定義 32 第三節 專利檢索 35 第四章 研究結果 43 第一節 歷年件數分析 43 第二節 國際專利分類碼分析 57 第三節 公司別分析 87 第四節 成長曲線分析 100 第五章 討論與結論 127 第一節 研究發現 127 第二節 研究貢獻 130 第三節 研究限制 133 第四節 未來研究方向 134 參考文獻 135

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