2017年六月1-3日梅雨鋒面個案所帶來的強降水事件區域遍及全台，北中南地區皆有傳出災情，也造成相當大農業與民間設施損失。因此本文使用Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 數值模式搭配Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF)資料同化系統，分析強降雨事件發生原因，並且進一步探討鋒面移動之機制。
在此個案之降水分析中，透過系集成員分組之合成平均比較並利用相關係數分析，發現造成此個案強降水發生之原因包含：鋒前與中南部山區迎風面出現旺盛低層水氣通量；鋒面南下並且出現北退現象造成臺灣地區第二波降水；低層西南西風場與山脈走向交角較大導致水氣於中南部山區出現明顯輻合現象。此外進一步發現在華南之低壓愈強，導致上游水氣通量愈旺盛輸送至臺灣地區。
至於鋒面移動分析，透過相關係數與渦度收支診斷，發現鋒面北退現象之關鍵與華南地區低壓再次增強有關，使得西南風於臺灣海峽再次增強，造成鋒面北退現象。此外也發現鋒面位置受華南低壓延伸方向所影響，而低壓延伸方向也受中高層槽向南延伸程度所影響，另外關於華南低壓勢力範圍，也與地面溫度有所相關。

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