從全球平均角度來看，在模式模擬全球暖化情境中，全球平均降雨變化呈現隨著時間增加的趨勢，並且對於降雨事件的發生頻率與強度，則有一弱降雨發生頻率減少，強降雨發生頻率增加之趨勢，並且呈現一個減弱的熱帶環流。然而，實際上降雨變化存在複雜的空間差異，因此與區域平均降雨變化相關之區域降雨頻率與強度的改變，也會隨著區域不同而有差別。本篇論文分析氣候模式模擬全球暖化情境，檢驗熱帶區域降雨變化的影響機制，並且進一步探討在這樣的降雨變化之空間差異下，其降雨頻率與強度的變化，以及其相對應的熱力與動力作用的貢獻。此外，亦利用大氣穩定度的改變來探討對流發展深度與熱帶環流變化的關係。
一般而言，當氣候變暖，平均降雨增加(減少)主要與降雨頻率增加(減少)以及強度增強(減弱)有關，這樣的變化主要受到大氣水氣增加之熱力貢獻，以及與熱帶環流變化有關的動力貢獻之影響。熱力貢獻對於平均降雨變化、降雨事件的頻率與強度，皆為正貢獻，特別是極端降雨事件，並且空間分布差異相對很小，而動力貢獻則係造成區域差異的關鍵。降雨頻率增加與強度增強，受到熱力貢獻主導較多，進而有利於平均降雨之增加。動力貢獻則可進一步加強這樣的變化，例如透過錦上添花機制(rich-get-richer mechanism)或海洋熱通量回饋。或者透過對流深度加深效應，輕微的減弱熱力貢獻。相對於熱力貢獻，動力貢獻與降雨發生頻率減少和強度減弱較為相關，例如透過落井下石機制(upped-ante mechanism)、對流深度加深效應、長波輻射冷卻、冷平流作用，然而暖平流則輕微有利於降雨事件的頻率增加。對於與降雨相關的之熱帶環流改變，透過資料分析與模式模擬測試顯示，當氣候暖化，熱帶環流可能減弱亦可能增強。當大氣環境越穩定(不穩定)，對流可發展深度亦隨之加深(變淺)，並且導致熱帶環流的減弱(增強)。

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