亞洲夏季季風的活躍與暫歇受季內振盪（ISO，Intraseasonal Oscillation）的影響很大，因此若能改善ISO的預報，將有助於亞洲季風之預報。本研究採用ECHAM4 T42及T106（European Centre,Hamburg）模式之日降雨值進行ISO評估。分析結果顯示，ECHAM4 T42模擬，無論是氣候模擬或是各年模擬，至五月份相關係數都下降，到了七、八月回升。五月份模擬變差的時間與對流往北移動的時間相符，而運用ECHAM T106模擬後，可使模擬結果變得更好，但五月份的空間相關係數仍較其他月份低。T42模式透過傳統系集平均，可有效增加模擬結果，無論是氣候模擬或是年際變化，十個模擬之傳統系集平均與五個模擬之傳統系集平均結果相差不多；運用系集模擬之後，無論在在訓練時間（training period）及預報時間（forecast period），系集模擬比單一模擬要好，透過統計回歸模擬又較傳統平均系集模擬佳，且透過統計回歸模擬，五月模擬較其他月份差的現象可獲得改善。
五月份30～60天降雨與赤道東太平洋、印度洋SST呈正相關，與熱帶西太平洋SST有呈負相關；模式對SST年際變化之反應與觀測相似，當東太平洋SST偏暖，西太平洋SST偏冷，在西太平洋地區30～60天振盪位置偏南，然而在模擬較差年時，在西太平洋地區30～60天振盪位置，較觀測位置偏北，降雨預報較觀測差；此外無論是模擬較佳年或是模擬較差年，印度洋地區預報均偏北；經過統計回歸方式調整後，對西太平洋地區及印度洋地區預報均有改善。

鄒治華、陳正達、徐邦琪，2002：台灣地區五-七月豪（大）雨之中長期變化與季內振盪，大氣科學，30,1-20。
李正康，2003：多重模式系集模擬應用於季內振盪預報之研究，國立台灣師範大學碩士論文。
鄒治華、柯文雄、張卜仁，2000：利用Wavelet分析南海地區季內振盪與東亞夏季季風之研究，大氣科學，28，27-46
Boville ,B.A.,1991：Sensitivity of simulated climate to model resolution .J.Climate,4,469-485.
Boyle,James S,1993：Sensitivity of Dynamical Quantities to Horizontal Resolution for a Climate Simulation Using the ECMWF(Cycle 33)Model. Journal of Climate: Vol. 6, No. 5, pp. 796–815.
Chen Tsing-Chang and M.Murakami,1988：The 30-50 day Variation of convective activity over the weatern Pacific Ocean with emphasis on the northwestern region.Mon.Wea.Rev. Vol. 116, No. 4, pp. 892–906.
Chen,T.-C.,M.Murakami,and R.-Y tzeng ,1988：On the development and life cycle of Indian monsoon.Mon.Wea.Rev.,16,1982-2002.
Chen,T.-C.,and J.M Chen ,1995：An observational study of the south China Sea Monsoon during the 1979 summer : onset and life cycle,Mon.Wea.Rev.,123,2295-2318.
Daubechies,I.,1998:Orthonormal bases of compactly supported wavelets,Commun.Pure Appl.Math.,41,909-996.
Gadgil,S.,and S.Sjani,1998：Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs.Climate.,18,161-180.
Gates,W.Lawrence.1992：AMIP:The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.Bull.Amer.Meteorol.Soc.,73,1962-1970.
He,Y.H.,C.H.Guan,and Z.J.Gan,1992：Heat oscillation in the upper ocean of the South China Sea(in Chinese).Acta Oceanol.Sin.,11,375-388.
Ho,C.-H.,and I.-S.Kang,1988：The variability of precipitation in Korea.J.Korean Meteor.Soc.,24,38-48.
Kang,I.-S.,K.Jin,K.-M.Lau,J.Shukla,V.Krishnamurthy,S. D.Schubert,D.E.Waliser,W.F.Stern,V.Satyan,A.Kitoh,G. A.Meehl,M.Kanamitsu,V.Ya.Galin,Akimasa Sumi,G.Wu, Y. Liu andJ.-K.Kim.2002a:Intercomparison of Atmospheric GCM Simulated Anomalies Associated with the 1997/98 El Niño. Journal of Climate: Vol.15,No.19,pp. 2791–2805.
Kang,k.Jin,B.Wang,K.-M.Lau,J.Shukla,V.Krichnamurthy,S.D.Schubert,D.E.Wailser,D.E.Wailser,W.F.Stern,A.Kitoh,G.A.Meeh,M.Kanamitsu,V.Y.Galin,V.Satyan,C.-K.Park,and Y.Liu,2002b：intercomparion of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated 10 GCMs.Climate Dyn.,19,383-395.
Kharin,V.V.,F.W.Zwiers，2002：Notes and Correspondence,Climate predictions with multimodel ensemble,American meteor.Soc,.793-799.
Krishnamurti,T.N. and D.Subrahmanyam,1982：The 30-50 day mode at 850 mb during MONEX.J.Atmos.Sci.,39,2088-2095.
Krishnamurti,T.N.,C.M.Krishtawal,T.E.LaRow,D.R.Bachiochi,Z.Zhang,C.E.Willifor,S.Gadgil,and S.Surendran,1999：Improved weather and seasonal climate forecast from multi-model superensemble,Science,285,1548-1550.
Krishnamurti,T.N.,Z Zhang,T.E.laRow,D.R.Bachiochi,C.E.Willifor,S.Gadgil,and S.Surendran,2000：Multi-model ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal cimate,J.Climate,13,4196-4216.
Krishnamurti,T.N.,D.K.Oosterhof,and A.V. Mehta.1988: Air–Sea Interaction on the Time Scale of 30 to 50 Days. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 45, No. 8, pp. 1304–1322.
Lau,K.-M.and P.H.Chan,1986：Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation ,Mon.Wea.Rev.,114,1354-1367.
Lorenz,E.N.,1963：Deterministic non-periodic flow,J.Atmos.Sci.,20,130-141.
Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702–708.
——, and ——, 1972: Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1109–1123.
Mak,M.,1995：Orthogonal Wavelet analysis：Interannual variability in the sea surface temperature ,Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,76,2179-2186.
Martian,G.M.1999：the simulation of the Asian summer monsoon,and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution ,in the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model.Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,125,1449-1525.
May,Wilhelm,2003：The Indian Summer Monsoon and its Sensitivity to the Mean SSTs：Simulation with the ECHAM4 AGCM at T106 Horizonal Resolution. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,Vol. 81,N.1,pp.57-83.
NaKazawa T.,1992：Seasonal Phase lock of intraseasonal variation during the Asian summer monsoon.J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,70,597-611.
Ramage,C,S.,1971：Monsoon Meteorology.Academic Press,277 pp.
Roeckner, E., R. Brokopf, M. Esch, M. Giorgetta, S. Hagemann, L. Kornblueh, E. Manzini, U. Schlese, and U. Schulzweida, Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model, J. Climate, in press, 2006.
Serber,K.R.,and T.N.Palmer,1996；Interannual tropical rainfall variability in general circulation model simulations associated with the atmospheric model intercomparison project.J.Climate,9,2727-2750.
Sikka,D.R.,and S.Gadgil,1980: On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian longitudes during the south west monsoon,Mon.Wea.Rev.,108, 1840-1853.
Torrence,C.and G.P.Compo,1998：Apractical Guide to wavelet analysis,Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,79,61-78.
Tanaka,M.,1992：intraseasonal oscillation and the onset and retreat dates of the summer monsoon over East,Southeasr Asia and the western Pacific region using GMs high cloud amount data.J.Meteor.Soc.Japan,70,613-629.
Wang,B.,and X.Xu,1997：Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon singularities and climatological intraseasonaal oscillation .J.Climate,10,1071-1085.
Wang,B.,and X.Xie,1998：Coupled modes of the warm pool climate system .Part Ⅰ：The role of air-sea interaction in Madden-Julian oscillation.J.Climate,11,2116-2135.

Weng,H.,and K.-M.Lau,1994：Wacelets,period doubling,and time-frequency location with application to organization of connection over the tropical weatern Pacific,Mon.Wea.Rev.,121,2523-2541.
Xie,Pingping, and Arkin,Phillip A.1997：Global Precipitation ：A 17-Year Monthly Analysis Based on Gauge Observations Satellite Estimates,and Numerical Model outputs.Bull.Amer.Meteorol.Soc.,78,2539-2558.
Yun ,W. T., L. Stefanova and T. N. Krishnamurti. 2003: Improvement of the Multimodel Superensemble Technique for Seasonal Forecasts. Journal of Climate: Vol. 16, No. 22, pp. 3834–3840.
Zhang,G.J.,and M.J.McPhaden,1995：The relationship between sea surface temperature and Latent heat flux in the equatorial Pacific. J.Climate,8,589-605.