近年來氣候變遷和生物物候學的研究廣受注目。有諸多研究顯示氣候變遷對物候的影響深遠，氣候變遷也可能影響到人類的活動，包括休閒旅遊。國外已有不少這方面的研究，但目前國內在這方面的研究仍在起步階段。本研究以福山植物園作為對象，分析比較2003-2011每日申請入園人數、核准人數和實際入園人數並分析它們和氣候及時段等因子之間的關係。結果顯示，暑假和周休二日平均申請人數都遠比平日要來的高，但平均實際入園率卻未必較高，即假日時段雖然會增加民眾申請入園的意願但不會增加實際入園率。舒適度變化方面，寒冷和炎熱天氣之平均入園率均偏低，「易中暑」的入園率為0.74，顯著低於「舒適」的入園率0.78。降雨日入園率為0.74，顯著低於無雨日的0.78，且隨著降雨量越大，入園率也有著越來越低的趨勢。颱風警報期間平均入園率為0.55，明顯低於無颱風的0.76，且颱風警報結束之後?天，平均入園率依然顯著低於無颱風時，同時也會隨著颱風強度增強而降低。宜蘭1980-2011年間呈現均溫上升以及降雨天數減少的趨勢，和台灣整體趨勢相符，超高溫(舒適度為易中暑)天氣和強降雨等極端氣候以及颱風數量若持續增加，對於實際造訪福山植物園的人數可能有很大影響，或許在未來也會對福山積極推廣的環境教育產生較不利的影響。

The effects of climatechange on phenology is a salient topic in environmental studies.Many studies have shown that climate change could substantiallychangeplant and animal phenology and also human activities, including tourismHowever, such studies are rare in Taiwan. This study examinedthe relationship between application and admissionto Fushan Botanical Garden of northeastern Taiwan, and (1) important climatefactors, (2) weekdays and weekends, (3) summer vocation, winter vocation and regular days. The results show that the average number of applicants duringsummer vacation and weekendsweresignificantlyhigher than regulardays but for the average admission ratedid not. The average admission rates wereconsiderably significantly lowerwhen it was hot orcold thanwhen it wascomfortable based on the 6

temperature humidity index. The average admission rate wassignificantly lower in rainy days than rainless dayswith the highertherainfall, the lower the admission rate. The average admission rate in the typhoon warning period wassignificantly lower than no warning period and the rate decreasedwith increases in typhoon intensity. The weather trend of Yi Lan between 1980 and 2011 wassimilar to the entireTaiwan, with an increasing trend in temperature and decreasing trend in precipitation and the number of typhoons. Such changes may lower the numberof people visiting of Fushan Botanical Garden.

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