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研究生: 陳永慶
Chen, Yung-Ching
論文名稱: 探討技術指標報酬率與公司特徵之關係–以布林通道為例
Profitability of Technical Indicators and Firm Characteristics – An Application of Bollinger Bands
指導教授: 蔡蒔銓
Tsai, Shih-Chuan
口試委員: 許和鈞 陳達新
口試日期: 2021/05/27
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 高階經理人企業管理碩士在職專班(EMBA)
Executive Master of Business Administration
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 37
中文關鍵詞: 布林通道效率市場公司特徵技術指標
英文關鍵詞: Bollinger Bands, Efficient Market, Firm Characteristics, Technical Indicator
研究方法: 實驗設計法
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202100535
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 美國學者Fama(1970)提出了效率市場假說(The Efficient Market Hypothesis, EMH),說明了在弱勢效率市場裡,所有的技術分析都是沒有作用的。本研究透過以布林通道做為投資策略基礎,並將台灣股票市場依不同的公司特徵與股權結構進行分類,利用Python進行投資策略的績效回測,並使用單因子與多因子迴歸模型進行分析,藉以探討布林通道策略是否可以讓股市投資人在台灣市場獲得超額報酬。透過績效回測與迴歸分析,實證結果指出在台灣股票市場應用本研究所設定之布林通道策略,皆可以從中獲得超額的年化報酬率。在公司市值高的股票透過布林通道策略獲得的年化報酬率低於公司市值低的股票;當沖率高的股票透過布林通道策略獲得的年化報酬率高於當沖率低的股票,;週轉率高的股票透過布林通道策略獲得的年化報酬率高於週轉率低的股票;董監持股比例的高的股票透過布林通道策略獲得的年化報酬率高於董監持股比例低的股票;外資持股比例高的股票透過布林通道策略獲得的年化報酬率低於外資持股比例低的股票。

    The US scholar, Fama (1970), proposed the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), stating that all technical analyses are in vain in a low-efficiency market. This study aims to develop invest-ment strategies with Bollinger bands (BBands), categorize the companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) by the firm characteristics and share structure, run the performance back-testing of investment strategies with Python, and conduct one-way and multi-way regression models to investigate if BBands can help investors to gain exorbitant profit from the TWSE. The performance back-testing and regression analysis show that the BBands strategy set by this study enables investors to gain an exorbitant internal rate of return (IRR) from the TWSE. When using the BBands strategy: stocks with a higher market value have a lower IRR than stocks with a lower market value; stocks with a higher day-trading rate have a higher IRR than stocks with a lower day-trading rate; stocks with a higher turnover rate have a higher IRR than stocks with a lower turnover rate; stocks with a higher management holding rate have a higher IRR than stocks with a lower management holding rate, and stocks with a higher foreign investor holding rate have a lower IRR than stocks with a lower foreign investor holding rate.

    第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與背景 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究架構 4 第二章 文獻探討 5 第一節 布林通道理論 5 第二節 布林通道文獻探討 9 第三節 效率市場理論 10 第四節 效率市場文獻探討 12 第五節 公司特徵文獻探討 13 第三章 研究方法 16 第一節 資料來源與樣本篩選 16 第二節 研究策略假設 17 第三節 變數定義與說明 18 第四節 研究假設 21 第五節 模型設定 23 第四章 實證結果與分析 24 第一節 敘述統計 24 第二節 單因子模型統計結果 27 第三節 多因子模型統計結果 29 第五章 結論與建議 31 第一節 研究結論 31 第二節 未來研究建議 32 參考文獻 33 英文文獻: 33 中文文獻: 37

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