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研究生: 洪大鈞
Hung, Ta-Chun
論文名稱: 新冠病毒(COVID-19)對台灣股票市場之影響-以主要出口產業暨生技醫療產業為例
The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Taiwa's Stock Markets: The Case of Main Exports and Biotech Medical Industries
指導教授: 周德瑋
Chou, De-Wai
口試委員: 林智勇 黃嘉威 周德瑋
口試日期: 2021/06/28
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 58
中文關鍵詞: 新型冠狀病毒異常報酬事件研究法迴歸分析
英文關鍵詞: COVID-19, Abnormal return, Event Study, Regression analysis
研究方法: 事件研究法
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202101343
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 新型冠狀病毒(COVID-19)疫情發生後對全球影響甚劇,各國陸續實施封鎖管制,導致經濟活動劇減,同時對台灣各產業造成嚴重的衝擊。但在這樣嚴峻的情勢下,生技醫療產業卻呈現逆勢成長,是我國少數受惠於疫情的產業。故本研究藉由事件研究法,檢視台灣出現首位本土案例時,對台灣全球主要出口產業及生技醫療產業的股價是否會產生異常報酬,並進一步分析台灣市場是否為效率市場,同時檢定產業別的差異及所選的財務指標對異常報酬的影響。實證結果顯示,在台灣出現首位本土案例後,所選產業皆出現顯著的異常報酬現象,且大部分產業因疫情所產生之異常報酬現象無法在短時間內迅速反應完畢,檢定的結果則顯示產業別的差異及所選的財務指標會對累積異常報酬產生顯著的影響。

    The global economy has suffered from coronavirus since the outbreak. The blockade imposed by various countries has led to a sharp decline in economic activities and substantially impacted Taiwan’s industries. However, the Biotech-Medical industry is growing against the trend, and it is also one of the few industries that benefit from the pandemic in Taiwan. Therefore, this study uses the event study method to examine whether there will be abnormal returns in the stock prices of main exports and Biotech medical industries in Taiwan after Taiwan announced its first local coronavirus case. Meanwhile, the study analyzes whether the stock market is efficient and the factors related to abnormal returns. The empirical results show that, after Taiwan announced its first local coronavirus case, all the selected industries show abnormal returns. Most of them cannot respond to the stock prices in a short period, and the factors specified in this study have significant effects on cumulative abnormal returns.

    摘要 I Abstract II 目錄 III 圖型目錄 IV 表格目錄 V 壹、緒論 1 第一節、 研究背景與動機 1 第二節、 研究目的 4 第三節、 研究流程 5 貳、文獻回顧 6 第一節、效率市場假說 6 第二節、國內效率市場文獻探討 8 第三節、國內外重大公衛事件文獻探討 10 參、研究設計 14 第一節、事件研究法 14 第二節、複迴歸分析 18 第三節、研究範圍 23 第四節、研究假說 31 肆、實證結果與分析 33 第一節、異常報酬檢定 33 第二節、效率市場檢定 42 第三節、異常報酬因素分析-產業別 44 第四節、累積異常報酬因素分析-財務指標 46 伍、結論與建議 53 第一節、研究結論 53 第二節、研究建議 54 參考文獻 56

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