研究生: |
周振潮 Chao, Chan-Chio |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
天鴿颱風(2017)快速增強之模擬與渦度分析 Simulation and vorticity analysis of HATO (2017) during rapid intensification (RI) |
指導教授: | 簡芳菁 |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2021 |
畢業學年度: | 109 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 91 |
中文關鍵詞: | 颱風 、數值模擬 、海溫敏感度 、快速增強 |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202100289 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:143 下載:19 |
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天鴿(Hato)颱風於2017年8月22至23日通過南海時,其強度迅速發展達到快速增強(Rapid Intensification,RI),於23日0600 UTC登陸澳門並造成當地有史以來最嚴重的災情。本研究利用WRF模式以歐洲中期天氣預報中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ; ECMWF)之ERA5全球模式為初始場,動力降尺度輸出空間解析度為3 km預報場,分析颱風內部結構與發展過程,藉以探討其RI之成因。
結果顯示,於RI初期,慣性穩定較低觸發徑向加速,在颱風中心強迫上升運動,加上環境垂直風切減弱,建立有利環境,使對流爆發(Convective Bursts,CBs)形成。於RI發展期,加速對流爆發(w>2 m⋅s^(-1),B>0.25 m⋅s^(-2))是促進RI發展的重要角色,透過底層輻合上升與潛熱釋放,使高層暖心形成,其相對低壓又促進對流產生,產生由熱力效應所主導之正回饋,有效提高颱風的強度。於RI成熟期,慣性穩定度達到最大值後3小時裏,底層輻合再度增加,搭配中層大量的輻散作用,造成以動力效應為主導的對流,與此同時颱風強度到達峰值,受地形抬升後,颱風登陸澳門。對流分佈與垂直風切有關,上升對流主要集中在下風區,佔有面積雖少,卻完成大量的質量通量傳輸,而下沉對流則集中在上風區左側,有壓抑暖心的作用。
此外,為瞭解海表溫度(Surface Sea Temperautre,SST)對RI的影響,本研究也進行有關海溫敏感度實驗。結果顯示,當SST降低1度時,因加速對流爆發數量減少,導致暖心無法形成,雖仍有RI發展,但高層增溫不明顯。當SST降低2度以上,對流爆發數量大量減少而沒有RI發展。因此,在本個案中高的SST有利於更多的加速對流爆發產生,其導致暖心結構的形成,所以在過程中扮演著主導角色,其數量與成熟度,將影響RI的強度。
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