簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 陳亭安
Chen, Ting-An
論文名稱: 冬季西伯利亞高壓移動路徑之分析及其對臺灣寒潮之影響
Analysis of the wintertime Siberian High tracks and their impact on the cold surge over Taiwan
指導教授: 曾莉珊
Tseng, Li-Shan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 94
中文關鍵詞: 西伯利亞高壓高壓路徑追蹤寒潮
英文關鍵詞: Siberian High, high tracks, track, cold surge
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202000269
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:229下載:22
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 影響東亞地區冬季期間最主要的系統即為西伯利亞高壓,了解與其相關之 高壓的移動路徑為了解東亞地區冬季氣候變化的重要工作之一。為提高研究的 科學再現性,並免除過去主觀追蹤高壓移動路徑的種種不便,本研究使用再分 析資料,經一系列演算法客觀的定義 1948—2017 年間東亞地區高壓移動路徑, 並依其主要行經位置將路徑分為向東移動進入西伯利亞高壓區的西側路徑 (West Tracks),及自西伯利亞地區發源,並向東移動的東北路徑 (Northeast Tracks),和東南路徑 (Southeast Tracks) 三類。
    經分析後發現 1983—2017 年間,Northeast Tracks 和 Southeast Tracks 的數 量皆較 1948—1982 年間多,但 West Tracks 的數量則以 1948—1982 年間較多。 此外,Southeast Tracks 的數量和西伯利亞高壓強度呈現負相關,當西伯利亞高 壓較弱時,較容易自高壓東南方分裂並形成一向東移動之子高壓。
    從天氣尺度上來看,長短不一的寒潮事件為東亞地區冬季期間最常見的天 氣現象,當北方冷空氣經由西伯利亞高壓傳至南邊使該地降溫時即可能發生。 冷空氣南傳的方式主要可分為二種,西伯利亞高壓受其東北方阻塞高壓影響滯 留原地,冷空氣隨高壓東側北風持續南傳使華中及華南地區降溫;另一種冷空 氣南傳的方式為西伯利亞高壓向東南方延伸或分裂子高壓時帶至行經區域令該 地降溫形成寒潮。
    為瞭解客觀分析之路徑與臺北地區寒潮間關聯,將 2000—2017 年間臺北所 發生之五十六次寒潮事件依地面氣溫、地面氣溫降溫速率、阻塞高壓存在與否 分成三類: (1) 第一類寒潮(blocking with cold air and temperature drop, BCD),十 八年間共發生二十五次; (2) 第二類寒潮(blocking with cold air only, BC) ,十八 年間僅發生五次; (3) 第三類寒潮(cold air and temperature drop without blocking, CD) ,十八年間共發生二十六次。第一、三類寒潮事件臺北地區皆快速降溫, 其間伴隨 Southeast Tracks 的機率約為 80%,比第二類寒潮事件多了約 20%。

    The Siberian High has a high impact on weather and climate in East Asia during northern hemisphere winter, so it is important to understand its tracks for the climate change in East Asia. For increasing the scientific reproducibility and avoiding inconvenient processes in subjective tracking, this research uses an objective algorithm to define and track the translation of the Siberian High center in reanalysis data. The tracks are divided into three primary groups: West Tracks, Northeast Tracks, and Southeast Tracks. West Tracks are the tracks of highs from the west merging with Siberian High, while Northeast and Southeast Tracks occurs when a secondary high separates northeastward or southeastward from Siberian High.
    The numbers of Northeast and Southeast Tracks in 1983—2017 are both more than those in 1948—1982, but the number of West Tracks in 1948—1982 is more than that in 1983—2017. Besides, the Southeast Tracks shows a negative correlation with Siberian High intensity; that is, a secondary high center tends to go southeastward when the Siberian High is weak.
    Cold surge, a common boreal winter weather phenomenon in East Asia, is usually induced by the cold air outbreak from higher to lower latitudes of Siberian High. The cold air moves southward in two ways. One way is the advection by the northerly on the eastern flank of stationary Siberian High when it is blocked by another high in its northeast; the other is the movement of cold air along with the southward translation of Siberian High.
    To understand the association between Siberian High tracks and the cold surge at Taipei, the cold surge events at Taipei of 18 winters in 2000—2017 are divided into three groups, type 1 (blocking with cold air and rapid temperature drop, BCD), type 2 (blocking with cold air only, BC), and type 3 (cold air and rapid temperature drop without blocking, CD), which occurs 25, 5, and 26 times, respectively. The type-1 and type-3 cold surge events are featured by a rapid temperature drop; about 80% of them are accompanied by the Southeast Tracks of Siberian High, while the type 2-cold surge, in which the temperature drop is not rapid, has approximately 20% less occurring with the Southeast Tracks.

    致謝I 中文摘要 II 英文摘要 III 目錄 IV 表目錄 VI 圖目錄 VI 第一章 前言 1 1.1 文獻回顧 1 1.2 研究動機與目的 3 第二章 資料與方法 5 2.1 資料來源 5 2.2 演算法追蹤高壓路徑方法 7 2.2.1 高壓中心位置判定 7 2.2.2 同一時間高壓中心篩選 9 2.2.3 高壓中心移動路徑追蹤 9 2.3 演算法所得結果分類 11 2.3.1 分類目標路徑 11 2.3.2 分類方法 12 2.3.3 分類結果 13 2.4 主觀定義高壓中心及追蹤路徑方法 13 2.4.1 人工定義高壓中心 13 2.4.2 人工追蹤高壓中心 13 2.5 西伯利亞高壓指標 (Siberian High Index) 14 第三章 主觀與客觀方法追蹤路徑之比較 16 3.1 演算法追蹤路徑與過去文獻之結果比較 16 3.1.1 Ding and Krishnamurti (1987) 中分類 16 3.1.2 Ding and Krishnamurti (1987) 所得路徑與演算法追蹤所得之結果比較 16 3.2 2000/2001及2001/2002二個冬季之人工追蹤與演算法追蹤之結果比較 17 3.2.1 資料 17 3.2.2 追蹤方法 17 3.2.3 主客觀追蹤方法所得之結果比較 18 第四章 演算法追蹤所得各類路徑特徵 21 4.1 各類路徑逐年變化 21 4.2 各類路徑於1948–1982及1983–2017二年代間差異 23 4.2.1 West Tracks 23 4.2.2 Northeast Tracks 24 4.2.3 Southeast Tracks 24 第五章 2000/11—2018/03 冬季寒潮定義及分類 26 5.1 寒潮事件定義 27 5.2 寒潮事件分類 28 第六章 結論與討論 32 6.1 演算法之未來改進方向探討 32 6.2 各類路徑特徵總結及未來研究方向 34 6.3 2000/11–2018/3之十八個冬季之寒潮事件 35 參考文獻 37 圖表 40 附錄 76 附錄一 76

    一、中文文獻:
    洪志誠、賈新興 (2005年10月)。2004年冬季台灣寒潮個案的診斷分析:阻塞高壓的影響。「2005天氣分析與預報研討會」發表之論文,臺北。

    二、英文文獻:
    Amante, C. and B.W. Eakins (2009). ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model: Procedures, Data Sources and Analysis. 24, NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC, 19 pp.
    Chang, C. P., and J. M. Chen, (1992). A statistical study of winter monsoon cold surges over the South China Sea and the large scale equatorial divergence. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan,70, 287–302.
    Chang, L. H., and Ching, Y. T. (1982). The Structure and Energetics of Blocking Highs. Atmospheric Sciences, 9, 275—209.
    Chen, T. C., M C. Yen, W. R. Huang, and W. A. Gallus Jr. (2002). An East Asian cold surge: Case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2271–2290.
    Chen, T.‐C., W.‐R. Huang, and J.‐H. Yoon (2004), Interannual variation of the east Asian cold surge activity, J. Clim., 34 (1) , 293– 305.
    Ding, Y. H., and T. N. Krishnamurti (1987). Heat budget of the Siberian high and the winter monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2428–2449.
    Gong, D. Y. and Ho, C. H. (2002). The Siberian High and climate change over middle to high latitude Asia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 72, 1–9.
    Herring S. C., Christidis N., Hoell A., Kossin J. P., Schreck C. J. III, Stott P. A. (2018). Explaining extreme events of 2016 from a climate perspective. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 99, Suppl:S1-S157.
    Huang, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G., Lawrimore, J. H., Menne, M. J., Smith, T. M., Vose, R. S., & Zhang, H. (2017).  Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5) : Upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. Journal of Climate,  30,  8179– 8205.
    Jeong, J. H., C. H. Ho, B. M. Kim, and W. T. Kwon (2005). Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on wintertime surface air temperature and cold surges in East Asia. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D11104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005408.
    Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kirtler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetma A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D. (1996).  The NCEP/NCAR 40‐year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.  77,  437– 471.
    K.E. Trenberth, and D.A. Paolino (1980). The Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure data set: Trends, errors, and discontinuities.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 855-872.
    Kim J. W., An S. I., Jun S. Y., Park H. J., Yeh S. W. (2016). ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon relationship modulation associated with the anomalous northwest Pacific anticyclone. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3371-5
    Leung Y. T., Zhou W. (2015) . Vertical structure, physical properties and energy exchange of the East Asian trough in boreal winter. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2419-7
    Li, Q. P., Y. H. Ding, W. J. Dong, and G. Yan (2007). A numerical study on the winter monsoon and cold surge over East Asia. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 24, 664–678.
    Li, Q., Ding, Y., Dong, W. and Yan, G. (2007). A numerical study on the winter monsoon and cold surge over East‐Asia. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 24, 664– 678.
    Panagiotopoulos, F., M. Shahgedanova, A. Hannachl, and D. B. Stephenson (2005). Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: A recently declining center of action. J. Climate, 18, 1411–1422.
    Song, L., & Wu, R. (2017). Processes for occurrence of strong cold events over Eastern China. Journal of Climate, 30 (22) , 9247– 9266.
    Tibaldi S., Molteni F. (1990). On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus 42A: 343–365
    Wang H. J., He S. P. (2012) . Weakening relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s. Chin Sci Bull, 57, 3535–3540
    Wang L., Chen, W. (2014). An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00086.1
    Wu, B., and J. Wang (2002). Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian High and east Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29 (19), 1897, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015373.
    Yang, T. C., Wu, P. C., Chen, V. Y., Su, H. J. (2009). Cold surge: a sudden and spatially varying threat to health? Sci Total Environ 407:3421-342419162302.
    Yun, J., Ha, K. J., Jo, Y. H. (2018). Interdecadal changes in winter surface air temperature over East Asia and their possible causes. Clim Dyn, 51, 1375–1390.

    下載圖示
    QR CODE