研究生: |
邱彥超 Chiu, Yen-Chao |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
模式解析度對 WRF 區域氣候模式中熱帶風暴活動模擬的影響 Effects of Model Resolution on the Simulation of Tropical Storm Activities in WRF Regional Climate Model |
指導教授: |
鄒治華
Tsou, Chih-Hua |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2015 |
畢業學年度: | 104 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 88 |
中文關鍵詞: | 區域氣候模式 、水平解析度 、熱帶風暴 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:194 下載:32 |
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水平模式解析度可能是影響模式模擬熱帶風暴(Tropical Storm, TS)活動之重要因素之一。本研究採用Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)區域氣候模式,研究範圍包含西北太平洋、印度洋及青藏高原(45°E-180°E,20°S-40°E)。研究解析度對此WRF-RCM模擬TS氣候活動之影響,設計兩部分的實驗。實驗一:選定30km、50km及100km三組水平解析度,進行2000-2010年6-11月TS氣候活動模擬。實驗二:增加2002年及2005年7-9月10km解析度之模擬,進行TS強度模擬。探討模式解析度對WRF-RCM模式中TS活動的影響。
結果顯示,100km解析度,能掌握TS之軌跡通過頻率,卻嚴重低估TS的生成頻率,此結果類似大多數的GCM模式。當解析度提升至50km時,TS的生成頻率模擬能力能有所提升,但仍然無法掌握TS生成頻率之年際變化。而當解析度提升至30km時,TS的通過頻率、生成頻率與生成頻率之年際變化,皆能有不錯的表現。但30km模擬嚴重低估TY4-TY5生成頻率,當解析度提升至10km時可以明顯改善TY4生成頻率,但TY4生成頻率仍低於觀測。
TS主要生成在海溫高、低層正渦度大、中層相對濕度高與垂直風切小的季風槽與輻合區。四組水平解析度模擬均可掌握此TS生成位置與大尺度環境條件場之關係。100km模擬中,地形阻擋效應差,在東南亞島嶼一代明顯高估高低層穿越赤道流風速,造成西北太平洋高低層垂直風切變大,且渦度中心、強降水區及季風合流區偏北偏東,有利TS生成區域變小。隨解析度增加至50km及30km,地形阻擋效應及降水分怖逐漸改善,環境場、TS生成位置及生成頻率模擬接近觀測。
強的TS生成位置偏東南、生命史較長、生成後多數向西北移動與風速改變率較大。四組水平解析度模擬均可掌握強的TS生成位置偏東及生命史較長之特徵。100km模擬中,強的TS生成位置偏北,路徑以向西移動為主。隨解析度增加至50km、30km及10km,強的TS生成位置與路徑模擬與觀測相似。100km、50km及30km模擬,嚴重低估強的TS風速改變率,造成TY4-TY5生成頻率嚴重低估。隨解析度增加至10km,強的TS移動路徑環境條件場較30km模擬有利TS發展,強的TS風速改變率及TY4生成頻率明顯改善,但仍低於觀測。
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