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研究生: Dadan Sumardani
Dadan Sumardani
論文名稱: Implementing Bayes' Theorem to Analyze Interactive Web-Based Scientific Inquiry Assessments: Inquiring Time-Temperature Graph on Atmospheric Climate Change Issue
Implementing Bayes' Theorem to Analyze Interactive Web-Based Scientific Inquiry Assessments: Inquiring Time-Temperature Graph on Atmospheric Climate Change Issue
指導教授: 張俊彥
Chang, Chun-Yen
口試委員: M. Shane Tutwiler
M. Shane Tutwiler
林志鴻
Lin, Jr-Hung
張俊彥
Chang, Chun-Yen
口試日期: 2023/07/19
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 科學教育研究所
Graduate Institute of Science Education
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 103
中文關鍵詞: 貝氏統計基於網絡的交互式評估拉希模型科學探究
英文關鍵詞: Bayesian Statistics, Interactive Web-based Assessment, Rasch Model, Scientific Inquiry
研究方法: 調查研究觀察研究
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202301252
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • From an early age, students in formal schools have been taught how to interact with nature through natural science lessons. However, have we made sure the lesson is appropriate to teach interaction with nature? Climate change is happening and has already been confirmed by scientists; teachers need to take action in class to spread awareness. Education is a way to educate people and can be a good way to prevent climate change before the tipping point (+1.5° C) is exceeded. Even worse, today, humans face many crises in many fields along with the development of human civilization; this thesis will discuss three crises around the field: the climate crisis, the 21st-century learning crisis, and the replication crisis. Three of them are demonstrated in a study of Scientific Inquiry Assessment in this thesis which included two studies. The First Study discusses Revolutionizing Scientific Learning using Innovating Interactive Web-based Assessment for Scientific Inquiry. This study aims to analyze the process of creating an interactive web-based evaluation that provides complete information about students' scientific inquiry abilities. Science education reform is transpiring worldwide, facilitating scientific inquiry (SI) ability which aims for students to understand how scientists do their work. Interest has rapidly expanded in integrating scientific inquiry into computer-based assessments, which can measure complex inquiry skills more effectively. According to Bayesian inference, there are differences between some demographic characteristics among eleventh-grade students from natural science classes in Southwest China’s public schools in terms of students’ scientific inquiry ability, in which “being” male and schools located in the city have evident to have higher probability on understanding climate change issue. The Second Study discusses Bayesian Multilevel Model Analysis on Scientific Inquiry Ability. Understanding the replication crisis is a hot topic that is widely discussed among scientists. This replication crisis is characterized by the difference between the latest results and the previous results. There is a need for alternatives for hypothesis testing in science education. This study aims to demonstrate and apply Multilevel Bayesian statistics to analyze the scientific inquiry ability of students in China. Finally, a truncated Poisson regression-based approach was used, clustered by Student ID, which was a good fit for the data. In summary, results varied widely between districts and schools but less so between classrooms. Moreover, adjusting for gender (which is an important control) is taken into account; students who take longer to take the test score about two points higher on average. In conclusion, this thesis answers three main keywords on the design of this thesis: Technology (Computer-based Assessment) as the answer to the 21st-century learning crisis, Bayesian (Statistical analysis) as the answer to Replication Crisis, and Climate change awareness content as the answer for Climate Change Crisis.

    Iceberg [Acknowledgments] i Freezing Point [Abstract] ii Mass Extinction I [Table of Content] iii Mass Extinction II [List of Tables] v Mass Extinction III [List of Figures] vi Warming [Chapter 1. Introduction] 1 Reference 5 Crisis [Chapter 2. The Crisis on Science Education] 7 2.1. The Crisis Background 7 2.2. Definition of Term 8 2.3. Thesis Organization 9 1° [Chapter 3. Revolutionizing Scientific Learning: Innovating Interactive Web-based Assessment for Scientific Inquiry] 13 3.1. Introduction 13 3.2. Literature Review 14 3.2.1. Scientific Inquiry 14 3.2.2. Interactive Web-based Assessment of Scientific Inquiry 16 3.2.3. The Nature of Scientific Inquiry Ability on Climate Change 17 3.2.4. Development of Assessment 19 3.2.5. Assessment Items 22 3.3. Method 24 3.3.1. Participants and Procedure 24 3.3.2. Data Analysis and Bayesian Statistic 25 3.4. Results 27 3.4.1. Item Fit of Scientific Inquiry Assessment 27 3.4.2. Demographic Characteristic regarding Scientific Inquiry Ability 29 3.5. Discussion 31 3.6. Conclusion 35 References 36 2° [Chapter 4. Bayesian Multilevel Model Analysis on Scientific Inquiry Ability] 43 4.1. Introduction 43 4.2. Literature Review 45 4.2.1. Bayesian and Frequentist 45 4.2.2. Bayesian Statistics 48 4.3. Research Question 50 4.4. Method 51 4.4.1. Survey of Students’ Scientific Inquiry Ability 51 4.4.2. Measure the Outcomes 56 4.4.3. Data analytic plan 57 4.5. Results 59 4.5.1. The Likelihood of Distribution 62 4.5.2. Model fit results from Truncated Poisson regression 64 4.5.2.1. What proportion of variance is observed at the class, school, and district? 66 4.5.2.2. Do students with longer testing times score higher, adjusting for gender? 69 4.6. Discussion 71 4.7. Conclusion 75 Reference 75 Tipping Point: +1.5° C [Chapter 5. Conclusion and Recommendation] 79 5.1. Conclusion and Recommendation 79 Appendix A. Scientific Inquiry Ability Assessment 81 Appendix B. Source Code for Bayesian Multilevel Model using R language. 93 Appendix C. Output of the Bayesian Multilevel Analysis 97 Appendix D. Full Results of Bayesian Model Fitting 101

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