2020年1月15日，美國總統川普與中國國務院副總理劉鶴簽署了《美國和中國經濟貿易協議》。此簽訂為雙方貿易戰開打二年以來，有共識達成第一階段的協議，暫時停止二年以來相互制裁與報復行為。從協議內容得知，美中雙方並不是全面性的談判結果所簽的協議，比較像是小範圍的採購協議。未來是否會出現第二次、第三次貿易協議等，值得觀察。
中國自從2001年加入WTO後，近20年來國家內部及對外經貿往來的任何經濟數據皆突飛猛進。從過往經驗得知，上古歷史著名的「伯羅奔尼撒戰爭」中，興起中的斯巴達挑戰既有雅典在地中海的權力，恰如，今天興起的中國挑戰美國在國際貿易霸權地位，此時美國為了鞏固與保護自己國家與國家既有利益時，勢必需要適當發起壓制的策略，不惜發生戰爭或引發一些摩擦，今日的美中貿易大戰發生也就不足為奇。
美中長期貿易逆差下，在美國總統川普上任後，即對中國進行貿易上的制裁，此次美中貿易戰由美國發起，第一階段的協議也由美國同意邀請中國簽屬，本文再次針對美中貿易赤字原因進行深入探討，綜合研究結果如下：
1.美中長期貿易逆差與美國本身經常帳長期赤字有絕對的關聯性，決定經常帳內最大赤字便是貿易帳，貿易帳中又以貨物貿易解釋貿易變化最為適當，貿易帳絕對可以解釋為經常帳的大縮影，美國經常帳長期惡化，絕對是扮演美中貿易赤字長期以來，美國本身內部最重要的因素之一。
2.中國從2001年加入WTO後，讓中國正式進入自由貿易國家與世界各國經貿往來更加密切，中國出口貿易量逐年升高2017年貿易總額已成為世界第一，美中貿易也隱藏世界第一大經濟體與第二大經濟體之競爭關係。
3.經由實證結果得知，匯率扮演國家貿易重要因素，美中貿易長期失衡與二國匯率有絕對相關聯性，當人民幣貶值時，美中貿易赤字呈現增加趨勢，中國匯率走勢與貨幣需求理論吻合，但無法藉由單一匯率變數來解釋美中貿易赤字全貌。

On January 15, 2020, President of the United States, Donald Trump, and Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China, Liu He, signed a “Phase One” trade agreement. This signing represents a consensus on a first-phase agreement and temporarily suspends the mutual sanctions imposed and retaliatory actions taken during the 2 years since the trade war began. The agreement states that it is not the result of comprehensive negotiations but is instead similar to a small-scale procurement agreement. Whether second- and third-phase trade agreements are to be formulated in the future is worth observing.
Since China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, the data on its internal economic conditions and overseas trade have all indicated considerable improvements. The data suggest China is a rising power, and, similar to how Sparta challenged Athens for power in the Mediterranean during the Peloponnesian War, China presents a challenge to the United States’ (US) hegemonic position in international trade. Thus, to consolidate and protect its interests, it was inevitable that the US would engage in strategy of repression, even at the cost of conflicts or trade war. This perspective provides a logical explanation of the trade war between the nations.
In response to the long-term US–China trade deficit, President Trump imposed trade sanctions on China immediately after taking office. Thus, the US–China trade war was initiated by the US, and the US also initiated the first phase of the trade agreement negotiations. This study conducts an in-depth examination of the factors for the US–China trade deficit. The comprehensive research results are as follows:
1.The long-term US–China trade deficit has a direct association with the long-term deficit in the US current account, whose deficit is dominated by the balance of trade. Variations in the balance of trade are best explained by the trade of goods, and the balance of trade can be seen as a miniature representation of the current account. The long-term deficit of the US current account is thus one of the most crucial internal factors in the US–China trade deficit.
2.Since the accession of China to the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has officially become a free trade country and actively participated in international trade. China’s export trade volume has increased over the years, and its total trade volume was first in the world in 2017. The US–China trade war also reflects the competitive relationship between the largest and second largest economies.
3.According to the empirical results, exchange rate plays a vital role in trade. The long-term US–China trade imbalance is directly related to the exchange rates of both countries. When the RMB depreciates, the US–China trade deficit exhibits an increasing trend. The trend of China’s exchange rate is consistent with what is predicted by the theory of demand for money, but the exchange rate variable alone is insufficient to explain the whole picture of the US–China trade deficit.

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