本文針對2016年10月6日至9日受艾利颱風與綜觀環境場影響，在臺灣東半部發生之強降雨事件進行分析。使用WRF數值模式進行模擬，透過ETKF資料同化產生之64個系集成員進行降雨機制的探討。
在風場強度與累積降雨的相關係數分析中，發現各系集成員之降雨模擬對於風場強度有很高的敏感度。透過將系集成員分成強風組 (strong wind group, SW) 和弱風組 (weak wind group, WW) 進行分析發現兩組降雨差異主要出現在臺灣東南部的區域，SW相比WW在該區有較接近觀測之降雨量，且透過風場以及水氣場的比較後發現颱風環流的發展是造成該雨區降雨的關鍵因素。而整起降雨事件根據主導的天氣系統不同，可以大致以7日0600 UTC為劃分。前期降雨主要受綜觀環境場的低壓環流影響，後期則是由艾利颱風的外圍環流主導。
在颱風環流敏感度實驗中，透過海溫調降使成員中整體風場條件最好的m7之颱風環流減弱。結果顯示原本颱風環流與綜觀環境場之低壓環流的合流因此減弱，分析後發現此合流是致使後續臺灣東南部降雨的關鍵因素。在水氣敏感度實驗中則是調整m7初始相對濕度來改善事件前期花蓮附近之區域降雨，結果發現降雨肇因為低壓環流勢力北上後，將水氣帶至臺灣東部，低層東南風受地形抬升形成降雨。

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