分析師扮演股票市場中重要資訊中介角色，投資人根據分析師發佈盈餘預測和股票推薦做投資決策。因此，分析師的預測準確性和偏頗性是投資人和學術界所關注的重要議題。本研究係探討省級人大代表選舉前，相較於同省民營證券分析師，能力好的省屬分析師對同省份地方國有企業和總部設於該省的民營企業是否發佈相對準確的盈餘預測。此外，本研究檢視係檢視省級人大代表選舉後3個月，相較於同省民營證券分析師，能力好的省屬分析師對同省份地方國有企業和總部設於該省的民營企業發佈相對準確的盈餘預測。
實證分析結果顯示，在省級人大代表選舉前後，能力佳省屬分析師追蹤同省國有企業和總部設於該省民營企業時，其相對盈餘預測準確性和同省民營證券公司分析師並未有顯著差異。額外分析結果亦顯示，省級人大代表選舉對於不同才能省屬分析師相對盈餘預測準確性，並未有顯著影響。

Analysts play a critical role as information intermediaries in the stock market. Investors make investment decisions based on analysts' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations. Hence, it is crucial for investors and academics to know the accuracy and bias of analysts' forecasts. This study investigates, before the Provincial People's Congress election, compared to private securities analysts from the same province, whether more capable provincial analysts issue relatively accurate earnings forecasts for local state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises headquartered in the same province. Additionally, within three months following the Provincial People's Congress election, this study examines whether, compared to private securities analysts from the same province, more capable provincial analysts issue relatively accurate earnings forecasts for local state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises headquartered in the same province.
The empirical results indicate no significant difference in the relative earnings forecast accuracy between more capable provincial and private securities analysts when following local state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises headquartered in the same province before and after the Provincial People's Congress elections. Sensitivity analysis results also show that the Provincial People's Congress election does not significantly affect the relative earnings forecast accuracy of provincial analysts with various capabilities.

王玉濤與王彥超 (2012)。業績預告信息對分析師預測行為有影響嗎？。金融研究第6期，頁193-206。
王礫、孔東民與代昀昊 (2018)。官員晉升壓力與企業創新。管理科學學報，第21卷第1期，頁111-126。
王永妍、耿卉與王國臣 (2019)。股權激勵影響分析師預測行為嗎？。中央財經大學學報，第4期，頁76-91。
孔東民與程序 (2019)。地方官員晉升激勵與企業社會責任。金融學季刊，第13卷第4期，頁110-152。
李鑽與施先旺 (2016)。機構投資人佣金分倉與分析師盈餘預測。宏觀經濟研究，第 6 期，頁135-146。
周黎安 (2007)。中國地方官員的晉升錦標賽模式研究。經濟研究，第7期：36-50。
周德慧 (2022)。央行言詞溝通、分析師預測與宏觀信息含量。投資研究，第41卷第3期，頁133-146。
程子健、陳韶竹與白雪蓮 (2022)。借殼上市還是IPO：上市方式影響分析師預測行為嗎？會計與經濟研究，第36卷第3期，頁111-128。
林彙桓 (2013)。台灣總統大選股市慶祝行情之實證研究：2012年。國立成功大
學經營管理研究所。
陳怡諠、卓翠月與白詩婷 (2017)。總統選舉事件對股市之影。選舉研究，第24卷第1期，頁33-60。
馮旭南 (2012)。承銷關係影響分析師行為嗎？－來自證券分析師薦股和預測活動的證據。中國會計評論，第 4 期，頁395-410。
廖明情、凌冬寧與鄧路 (2019)。公司跨界經營、信息披露與分析師預測。系統工程理論與實踐，第39卷第2期，頁330-345。
劉佳、吳建南與馬亮 (2012)。地方政府官員晉升與土地財政—基於中國地市級面板數據的實證分析。公共管理學報，第9卷第2期，頁11-23。
鄭志剛、阚鑠與黃繼承 (2017)。官員在職讀研與政治晉升中的肌力扭曲。經濟學報，第4卷第2期，頁65-95。
Bialkowskj, J., K., Gottschalk, & T. P., Wisniewski (2008). Stock market volatility around national elections. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1941–1953.
Bradley, D., S., Gokkaya, & X., Liu (2017). Before an analyst becomes an analyst: Does industry experience matter? The Journal of Finance, 72(2), 751–792.
Chan, L. K., Karceski, J., & J. Lakonishok (2007). Analysts' conflicts of interest and biases in earnings forecasts. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 42(4), 893-913.
Clement, M. B. (1999). Analyst Forecast Accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 27(3), 285–203.
Clement, M. B., & S. Y., Tse (2005). Financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting. The Journal of Finance, 60(1), 307–341.
Chen, Y., H., Li, & L. A. Zhou (2005). Relative performance evaluation and the turnover of provincial leaders in China. Economics Letters, 88(3), 421-425.
Clement, M. B., L., Koonce, L., & T. J. Lopez (2007). The roles of task-specific forecasting experience and innate ability in understanding analyst forecasting performance. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 44(3), 378–398.
Chen, H. L., C. T., Huang, & H. W., Lin (2016). Changes in analyst following for less covered firms accompanying Regulation Fair Disclosure: the roles of ability and industry experience. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 46(3), 519-541.
Crane, A., & K., Crotty (2020). How skilled are security analysts? The Journal of Finance, 75(3), 1629–1675.
Dang, C., S., Foerster, Z. F., Li, & Z., Tang (2021). Analyst talent, information, and insider trading. Journal of Corporate Finance, 67(2), 101803.
Dinc, I. S. (2005). Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2), 453–479.
Dugar, A., & S. Nathan (1995). The effect of investment banking relationships on financial analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations. Contemporary Accounting Research, 12(1), 131–160.
Firth, M., C., Lin, & Y. Xuan (2012). The client is king: Do mutual fund relationships bias analyst recommendations? Journal of Accounting Research, 51(1), 165–200.
Franco, G. D., O. K., Hope, D., Vyas, & Y., Zhou (2015). Analyst report readability. Contemporary Accounting Research, 32(1), 76–104.
Gleason, C. A., & C. M. C., Lee (2003). Analyst forecast revisions and market price discovery. The Accounting Review, 78(1), 193–225.
Groysberg, B., P., Healy, N., Nohria, & G., Serafeim (2011). What factors drive Analyst forecasts? Financial Analysts Journal, 67(4), 18–29.
Gu, Z., Z., Li, & Y. G., Yang (2013). Monitors or predators: The influence of institutional investors on sell-side analysts. The Accounting Review, 88(1), 137–169.
Gu, M., G. J., Jiang, & B., Xu (2019). The role of analysts: An examination of the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly in the Chinese stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 52, 237-254.
Gu, Z., Z., Li, Y. G., Yang, & G., Li (2019). Friends in need are friends indeed: An analysis of social ties between financial analysts and mutual fund. The Accounting Review, 94(1), 153–181.
He, F., & Y., Ma (2019). Do political connections decrease the accuracy of stock analysts' recommendations in the Chinese stock market? Economic Modelling, 81(6), 59–72.
Hong, H., & J. D., Kubik (2003). Analyzing the analysts: Career concerns and biased earnings forecasts. The Journal of Finance, 58(1), 313–351.
Hou, Q., W., Li, M., Teng, & M., Hu (2022). Just a short-lived glory? The effect of China's anti-corruption on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts. Journal of Corporate Finance, 76, 102279.
Jensen, N. M., & S., Schmith (2016). Market responses to politics: The rise of Lula and the decline of the Brazilian stock market. Comparative Political Studies, 38(10), 1245–1270.
Jiang, D., A., Kumar, & K. F. K., Law (2016). Political contributions and analyst behavior. Review of Accounting Studies, 21(1), 37–88.
Kadan, O., L., Madureira, R., Wang, & T., Zach (2012). Analysts' industry expertise. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 54(2–3), 95–120.
Kandel, E., K., Kosenko, R., Morck, & Y., Yafeh (2019). The great pyramids of America: A revised history of U.S. business groups, corporate ownership, and regulation, 1926–1950. Strategic Management Journal, 40(5), 781–808.
Kempf, E., & M., Tsoutsoura (2021). Partisan professionals: Evidence from credit rating analysts. The Journal of Finance, 76(6), 2805–2856.
La Porta, R., F., Lopez-De-Silanes, & A., Shleifer (2002). Government ownership of banks. The Journal of Finance, 57(1), 265–301.
Lim T. (2001). Rationality and analysts' forecast bias. The Journal of Finance, 56 (1), 369-385.
Li, H., & L. A. Zhou (2005). Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China. Journal of Public Economics, 89(9-10), 1743-1762.
Lyu, C., K., Wang, F., Zhang, & X., Zhang (2018). GDP management to meet or beat growth targets. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 66(1), 318-338.
Li, N., N., Xu, R., Dong, K. C., Chan, & X., Lin (2021). Does an anti-corruption campaign increase analyst earnings forecast optimism? Journal of Corporate Finance, 68(2), 101931.
Lin, Z., D., Luo, & F., Zhang (2022). Regional GDP distortion and analyst forecast accuracy: Evidence from China. The European Journal of Finance, 28(4–5), 437–460.
Ru, H. (2018). Government credit, a double-edged sword: Evidence from the China Development Bank. The Journal of Finance, 73(1), 275–316.
Wahab, E. A. A., J., How, J., Park, & P., Verhoeven (2018). Political patronage and analysts' forecast precision. Journal of Contemporary Accounting & Economics, 14(3), 307–320.
Wu, Y., T., Liu, L., Han, & L., Yin (2018). Optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 49, 147-163.
Yu, S., J., Zhang, & M., Qiu (2020). Political uncertainty and analysts' forecasts: Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101340.
Xu, N., K. C., Chan, X., Jiang, & Z., Yi (2013). Do star analysts know more firm-specific information? Evidence from China. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(1), 89-102.