研究生: |
簡慈瑩 Chien, Tzu-Ying |
---|---|
論文名稱: |
莫蘭蒂颱風(2016)之數值模擬與研究 The Numerical Simulation and Study of Typhoon Meranti (2016) |
指導教授: |
簡芳菁
Chien, Fang-Ching |
學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
系所名稱: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
論文出版年: | 2018 |
畢業學年度: | 106 |
語文別: | 中文 |
論文頁數: | 148 |
中文關鍵詞: | 颱風 、氣旋初始化 、雷達資料同化 、定量降水校驗 |
DOI URL: | http://doi.org/10.6345/THE.NTNU.DES.016.2018.B07 |
論文種類: | 學術論文 |
相關次數: | 點閱:138 下載:23 |
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莫蘭蒂(Meranti)颱風於2016年9月13日至15日影響臺灣,雖並未登陸臺灣,但其行經巴士海峽期間,於臺灣東部迎風面與屏東地區降下豪雨,造成嚴重水災與山區道路損毀;且在進入臺灣海峽後,因受到東南方對流雲系影響,仍持續在台東地區造成豪雨。本研究應用Nguyen and Chen (2011) 颱風初始化方法,以WRF模式模擬莫蘭蒂颱風個案,探討東部迎風面的降水機制,並針對後期的台東豪雨事件進行討論。此外,為瞭解臺灣地形與雷伊颱風對莫蘭蒂颱風之影響,以及同化雷達資料可否對模擬之降雨有所改善,本研究也進行敏感度實驗和雷達資料同化實驗。
模擬結果顯示,第一波降雨期間,環流與地形效應在對流發展與降水扮演重要角色;第二波降水期間,東部外海的氣流輻合與傳輸造成台東豪雨事件 。敏感度實驗結果顯示,臺灣地形高度會影響莫蘭蒂環流結構、路徑與迎風面的降水量;而地形阻擋效應、環流結構不對稱以及雷伊颱風皆是影響莫蘭蒂路徑的因素。雷達資料同化實驗使用3DVAR資料同化法,結果顯示同化雷達回波(包含徑向風與回波)或傳統資料因可修正颱風雨帶位置,使同化後0-12h的降雨預報獲得改善,因而對第一波降水有較佳的模擬。
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