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研究生: 徐銘偉
Hsu, Ming-Wei
論文名稱: 以類電磁為基礎之類神經綱路技術應用於太陽能預測
Solar Forecasting using EM-based Neural Networks
指導教授: 呂藝光
Leu, Yih-Guang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電機工程學系
Department of Electrical Engineering
論文出版年: 2017
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 80
中文關鍵詞: 類電磁演算法類神經網路太陽能預測
英文關鍵詞: Electromagnetism-like mechanism algorithm, neural network, solar irradiance forecasting
DOI URL: https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202202882
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:116下載:2
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  • 本論文探討使用類電磁演算法優化類神經網路並應用於日射量預測問題。首先,建置一日射量資料平台以收集日射量預測所需相關數據,該日射量資料平台設備包括日射計、單板電腦(single-board computer)、攝影機與雲端伺服器等。藉由整合該日射量資料平台設備以即時擷取日射量與當前天空之影像圖,並儲存於雲端伺服器MySQL資料庫。利用該資料庫日射量與天空之影像圖資料,建立一即時日射量類神經網路預測系統,該日射量類神經網路預測系統可領前1至6小時預測日射量。為了使預測結果更加準確,透過類電磁演算法的改造與改良,使該演算法可以用於優化該類神經網路預測系統。最後,將本文所提之類電磁神經網路和傳統類神經網路進行預測誤差比較,以驗證本文所提之類電磁神經網路之效能。

    In the thesis, a solar irradiance forecasting system is developed by using an electromagnetism-like neural network. The hardware of the solar irradiance forecasting system includes a pyranometer, single-board computer, webcam and cloud server. The hardware devices are used to collect and store the solar data, including solar irradiance data and sky images. The electromagnetism-like mechanism algorithm is improved and involved in the neural network in order to increase the forecasting efficiency. The input features of the neural network includes real-time sky and solar irradiance data and past solar irradiance data. Based on the trained neural network, the solar irradiance forecasting system can calculate the hourly 1-6 hours ahead solar irradiance values. Finally, some comparison results are given to verify the efficiency of solar irradiance forecasting system.

    摘 要 I ABSTRACT II 致謝 III 目錄 IV 圖目錄 VI 表目錄 X 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究方法 3 1.4 研究架構 4 第二章 文獻探討與回顧 5 2.1 太陽能基本概念 5 2.1.1 當前太陽位置判斷 5 2.1.2 理論日射量計算 7 2.2 傳統型預測 8 2.2.1 時間序列預測 8 2.2.2 自回歸滑動平均模型 9 2.2.3 差分自回歸滑動平均模型 9 2.3 智慧型預測 11 2.3.1 類神經網路 11 2.3.2 類電磁演算法 18 第三章 以類電磁為基礎之類神經網路技術 應用於太陽能預測 20 3.1 硬體架構 21 3.1.1 日射量雲端紀錄系統 21 3.3.1 當前天空影像紀錄系統 24 3.2 軟體架構 27 3.3 預測方法 31 3.3.1 倒傳遞類神經網路預測法 31 3.3.2 類電磁神經網路預測法 35 3-3-3 影像推估日射量之方法 46 第四章 預測結果及效能比較 54 4.1 評估指標介紹 54 4-1-1 相關係數 54 4-1-2 均方根誤差(RMSE) 55 4-1-3 平均絕對百分比誤差(MAPE) 55 4.2 實際預測結果 56 第五章 結論與未來展望 76 5.1 結論 76 5.2 未來展望 76 參考文獻 77

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