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研究生: 朱美霖
Chu, Mei-Lin
論文名稱: 季內時間尺度的颱風模擬:高解析度模式(HiRAM)25和50公里
Typhoon Simulations on Subseasonal Timescale in HiRAM at 25 and 50km
指導教授: 鄒治華
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 106
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 61
中文關鍵詞: 季內振盪高解析度大氣模式颱風模擬
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/THE.NTNU.DES.017.2018.B07
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:84下載:10
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  • 本研究主要分析高解析度大氣模式HiRAM之25km與50km模擬場對於在季內時間尺度的西北太平洋颱風活動模擬情況。首先檢視氣候特徵,其後進行季內振盪東西風相位時期模擬之探討。
    颱風氣候特徵模擬之檢視,分為西北太平洋全域以及登陸侵襲東亞分區域等兩部分。西北太平洋全域的模擬結果顯示,兩模式模擬場對於颱風活動的空間分布掌握良好,颱風大多數生成在季風槽區與大尺度的東西風輻合區,與觀測一致。但是由於模擬的季風槽偏強,模式傾向高估颱風生成個數。在相同的颱風篩選條件門檻下,HiRAM 25km模擬的颱風生成個數較接近於觀測場,表現優於HiRAM 50km。颱風強度方面,模擬場傾向低估;以觀測場強度為基準的比較結果顯示,HiRAM 25km能模擬三級颱風(TY3)以上的強度,表現明顯優於HiRAM 50km。
    登陸侵襲東亞分區域部分,為將行經東亞之颱風依其登陸侵襲區域作分類來比較;即登陸侵襲臺灣/中國大陸東岸區(TWCN)、南海區(SCS)與日本區(JP)等三類。結果顯示,HiRAM 50km對於侵襲TWCN與SCS類颱風之生成個數及通過頻率之掌握度相對於侵襲JP類颱風者佳,於侵襲JP類颱風之生成個數則明顯高估而通過頻率分布偏北。HiRAM 25km對於侵襲TWCN與SCS類颱風之生成個數及通過頻率模擬與觀測場相似,並能改善HiRAM 50km侵襲JP類颱風之生成個數高估和通過頻率分布偏北的情形。
    季內振盪西(東)風相位期間,大尺度環境場呈現氣旋式(反氣旋式)環流,颱風生成機率較高(較低)。觀測場統計數據顯示,颱風在西風相位時期之生成機率約為東風相位時期的2倍。HiRAM 25km能夠良好掌握東西風相位期之間颱風生成機率之差異,HiRAM 50km則無法掌握此差異性。
    在環境型態方面,西風相位時期,季內振盪之氣旋式環流加強季風槽,環境有利於颱風生成與發展,大尺度環流與颱風生成之間的關係與氣候場相似,模式掌握度較高。東風相位時期,季內振盪之反氣旋式環流抵消季風槽,環境不利於颱風生成與發展,大尺度環流與颱風生成之間的關係不明確,模式掌握度降低。HiRAM 25km雖然於東風相位時期略高估臺灣附近之颱風通過頻率,但仍能夠良好模擬東西風相位期之間颱風活動分布特徵之差異性。HiRAM 50km於東風相位時期明顯高估臺灣附近之颱風通過頻率,導致東西風相位期之間颱風活動分布特徵差異不明顯。
    數據統計以及空間型態等分析結果顯示,HiRAM 25km對於季內時間尺度之颱風活動具有相當的模擬能力。

    摘要 I 致謝 III 圖表說明 V 第一章 前言 1 第二章 資料與方法 6 2.1 觀測資料 6 2.2 模式資料與颱風偵測方法 6 2.3 資料濾波與季內振盪分析方法 9 第三章 颱風活動與大尺度環境場之氣候特徵模擬 10 3.1 西北太平洋區域之模擬 10 3.2 颱風侵襲三分區之探討 19 第四章 季內振盪與颱風活動模擬 22 4.1 季內振盪東西風相位期間的環境特徵 23 4.2 季內振盪東西風相位期間的颱風活動情況 26 4.2.1 颱風活動統計比較 26 4.2.2 颱風生成頻率分布 30 4.2.3 颱風通過頻率分布 33 第五章 結論與討論 37 參考文獻 46 附圖表 51

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