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研究生: 張庭鋒
Cheung, Ting-Fung
論文名稱: 投資人意見分歧對股票獨特性風險之影響: 不同市場風險之情境分析
The Influence of Investors' Opinion Divergence on Stock Idiosyncratic Risk: A Scenario Analysis Across Different Levels of Market Risk
指導教授: 蔡蒔銓
Tsai, Shih-Chuan
賴慧文
Lai, Hui-Wen
口試委員: 蔡蒔銓
Tsai, Shih-Chuan
江彌修
Chiang, Mi-Hsiu
何耕宇
Ho, Keng-Yu
口試日期: 2024/06/18
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理研究所
Graduate Institute of Management
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 53
中文關鍵詞: 獨特性風險意見分歧牛熊市市場風險
英文關鍵詞: Idiosyncratic risk, opinion divergence, market risk, bull and bear markets
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202400792
論文種類: 學術論文
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  • 早期學者著墨於投資人意見分歧與個股預期報酬、資產價格泡沫化、崩盤風險、獨特性風險負溢酬等領域,而本研究則是著重探討投資人意見分歧對個股獨特性風險之關係來彌補兩者關係為何,並進一步探討在牛熊時且市場風險較高情況下,投資人意見分歧對個股獨特性風險之影響,因此本研究以2012年1月1日至2022年12月31日為樣本期間,主要以多元迴歸探討投資人意見分歧對個股獨特性風險之關係,並以牛熊時且市場風險較高的情境下,投資人意見分歧對個股獨特性風險之關係為何,實證結果發現,(1)投資人意見分歧對個股獨特性風險存在正向顯著影響,(2)投資人意見分歧對於下一期之個股獨特性風險仍存在正向顯著影響,投資人意見分歧具有預測效果,與過往文獻結果相符,(3)在當期與前一期牛時且市場風險較高的情況下,投資人意見分歧會減緩個股獨特性風險之正向效果,(4)在當期與前一期熊市且市場風險較高的情況下,投資人意見分歧對個股獨特性風險則無顯著影響。

    Early scholars focused on issues such as investor disagreement, stock returns, asset price bubbles, crash risks, and the negative risk premium of idiosyncratic risk. However, this study explores the relationship between investor disagreement and the idiosyncratic risk of stocks to bridge the gap between these factors. It further examines the impact of investor disagreement on idiosyncratic risk during periods of high market risk in both bull and bear markets. The sample period spans from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2022. This study primarily employs multiple regression analysis to investigate the relationship between investor disagreement and the idiosyncratic risk of stocks, examining the dynamics under scenarios of high market risk during bull and bear markets. The empirical results indicate that: (1) investor disagreement has a significant positive impact on the idiosyncratic risk of stocks; (2) investor disagreement continues to significantly influence the idiosyncratic risk of stocks in subsequent periods, demonstrating predictive power and consistency with previous literature; (3) during both current and previous periods of bull markets with high market risk, investor disagreement mitigates the positive effect on idiosyncratic risk; (4) during both current and previous periods of bear markets with high market risk, investor disagreement has no significant effect on idiosyncratic risk.

    謝辭 2 摘要 3 ABSTRACT 4 第一章 緒論 7 第一節 研究背景及動機 7 第二節 研究目的 9 第三節 研究流程 10 第二章 文獻探討 11 第一節 個股獨特性風險 11 第二節 投資人意見分歧 13 第三節 市場風險 14 第四節 牛熊市 15 第三章 研究方法 16 第一節 資料來源及樣本 16 第二節 研究假說 17 第三節 變數定義及說明 19 第四節 模型設定 27 第四章 實證結果 32 第一節 敘述統計 32 第二節 迴歸結果 37 第三節 穩健性檢定 48 第五章 結論 49 第一節 研究結論 49 參考文獻 51 附錄 56

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