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研究生: 吳宇翔
Wu, Yu-Hsiang
論文名稱: 好萊塢動作片票房預測之研究-以電影產業鏈為分析觀點
A Study of Box Office Predictions for Hollywood Action Movie: A Perspective from the Film Industry Chain
指導教授: 董澤平
Dong, Tse-Ping
口試委員: 林志斌 黃啟瑞
口試日期: 2021/07/12
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 全球經營與策略研究所
Graduate Institute of Global Business and Strategy
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 72
中文關鍵詞: 電影產業鏈動作片票房MPAA
英文關鍵詞: Film industry, Action films, Box office, MPAA
研究方法: 次級資料分析
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202100963
論文種類: 學術論文
相關次數: 點閱:114下載:11
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  • 從過去到現在動作片一直是好萊塢電影產業熱門的片種之一,也不斷著刷新戲院 票房收入的歷史佳績,隨著近十幾年來科技不斷的進步,特效也越做越真實,觀眾 也越來越喜愛逼真的動作場景以及精彩的聲光特效,因此觀眾也更有意願買票進 戲院消遣放鬆,也促進票房收益的增長,然而票房收益的果實需要靠完整緊密的電 影產業鏈來完成,在生產者這端,需要專業的水平分工以及垂直下放,並且透過宣 傳造勢活動以及部門間互相協調統整來推動整個電影產業鏈。但是在消費者這端, 伴隨著行動網路的普及以及新網路時代的來臨,社群媒體快速竄起並且引領著時 下潮流,其中,越來越多網友會觀看專業的電影評論家以及其他網友在知名電影評 論平台給的評分以及觀賞心得,所以口碑效果的傳遞是否會影響觀眾進戲院支持 電影是個值得探討的重點。 因此本研究收集近十年的好萊塢動作片中每年前二十大動作片票房、資金、卡司陣 容、MPAA評級、上映院數、上映天數以及美國知名電影評分網站的評分以及評論 資料並透過最小平方法迴歸來分析影響票房有哪些可能因素。另外,透過續集以及 非續集類別動作片的分類,分別使用迴歸來探究不同型態的的動作片票房分別對 哪些可能因素產生偏好影響。期望可以幫助製片商在製作動作片前,可以將這些策 略因素分析納入拍攝考量。 研究結果顯示,續集相較於非續集電影有助於票房收益更加的成長,另外口碑效果 對票房對票房收益有顯著正向關係,由此可見,網路聲量對票房至關重要,而資金 和卡司指數對票房收益沒有顯著影響。希冀本研究的實證結果可以有助於電影產 業鏈來達到有效的資源配置,並且能讓該產業的經營持續蓬勃發展。

    From the past to the present, action movies have been one of the hottest film genres in the Hollywood film industry, and their box office revenue continue to hit new high. With the advancement of technology in the past ten years, people love for realistic action scenes and wonderful special effects, so audiences are willing to buy tickets into the theater to relax, which also increase the box office revenue. However, good box office revenue requires a complete film industry chain to shoot good works. On the producer side, professional horizontal division of labor and vertical decentralization are required, and the entire film industry chain is promoted through inter-departmental coordination and integration. But on the consumer side, with the convenience of mobile networks, social media has rapidly grown up and lead the current trend. Most netizens watch professional movie critics and audience comments on famous movie platforms. Therefore, whether the transmission of word-of-mouth effects will affect the audience go to the theater to support the movie is an issue that needs to be discussed.
    This research collects the box office, funding, cast , MPAA, number of theaters, number of days in theaters, and ratings and reviews of well-known film rating websites in the United States of Hollywood's top 20 action films in the past ten years, then returns them through the ordinary least square. Analyze the possible factors affect the box office. In addition, through the classification of sequel and non-sequel action movies, regression is used to explore the possible factors that different types of action movies have preference influence on the box office. The results show that shooting a sequel movie helps to increase the box office revenue. In addition, the ratings of the audience or the film review and the number of comments have a positive correlation with the box office. It can be seen that the volume of online voice is very important to the box office. Others such as The fund and cast index have no significant impact on box office returns.

    第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 5 第三節 研究設計 5 第二章 文獻探討 7 第一節 美國電影產業概述 7 第二節 美國動作片歷史發展及介紹 12 ㄧ、動作片簡介以及歷史 12 二、1970年代動作片 13 三、1980年代動作片 13 四、1990年代動作片 14 五、2000年代後動作片 15 第三節 影響電影票房重要因素 15 ㄧ、動作片變數 15 二、 預測電影票房變數之因素 19 第三章 研究方法 27 第一節 研究架構建立 27 第二節 變數的研究對象 28 ㄧ、票房資料 28 二、電影評論模式 30 第三節 實證研究彙整 32 第四節 應變數、自變數的定義 34 ㄧ、應變數 34 二、自變數 34 三、調節變數 35 第五節 研究假說總整理 36 第六節 實證方法設計 38 第七節 資料來源及樣本收集 40 第四章 實證模型與分析 41 第一節 敘述統計 41 第二節 實證模型分析結果 46 ㄧ、解釋變數 46 二、皮爾森相關係數 48 三、迴歸模型分析 49 四、驗證結果之分析 60 五、研究發現 61 六、研究貢獻 63 七、管理意涵 64 第五章 結論與建議 66 第一節 研究結論 66 第二節 研究建議 67 參考文獻 68 網路文獻 71

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