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Author: 張育瑋
Thesis Title: 氣候變遷下臺灣地區溫度變化對度日與電力供需之影響
Advisor: 陳正達
Degree: 碩士
Master
Department: 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
Thesis Publication Year: 2013
Academic Year: 101
Language: 中文
Number of pages: 94
Keywords (in Chinese): 度日電力負載氣候變遷取暖度日降溫度日
Thesis Type: Academic thesis/ dissertation
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  • 全球氣候變遷,臺灣地區夏季的氣溫逐年升高,使得冷氣使用所需的耗能也越來越多,尖峰負載年年創新高。為防止大規模停電,造成嚴重的經濟損失,因此本研究探討臺灣地區氣溫與電力需求兩者之間的關係。
    臺灣地區的電力需求呈現夏季多於冬季,平日多於假日的情形,溫度與電力負載呈現非線性關係,因此使用度日分析法使其氣溫與電力負載呈線性關係,以預測未來電力需求。
    臺灣地區自1981年至2006年間的度日特徵顯示,取暖度日明顯受緯度影響,出現於11月至隔年4月;降溫度日受都市化影響,出現於5月至10月。整體上,臺灣地區因為緯度較低、氣候溫暖,高溫出現日數較低溫出現日數多,所以降溫需求遠大於取暖需求。
    在未來變化預測上,使用CMIP3與CMIP5模式不同情境設定下的氣溫資料,做為推估未來溫度變化的依據。結果顯示,未來降溫度日將急速增加。假設電力負載只受溫度影響下,利用度日分析法所求得的迴歸方程預測未來可能的電力負載值,顯示電力負載於本世紀中葉及本世紀末皆呈現明顯增加的趨勢。

    摘  要.......................................I 目  錄.......................................II 圖表說明.......................................III 第一章 前言....................................1 1.1 文獻回顧..................................2 1.2 研究目的與論文架構........................3 第二章 資料介紹................................5 2.1 臺灣地區電力負載資料......................5 2.2 臺灣地區氣象資料..........................6 2.2.1 觀測資料................................6 2.2.2 未來氣溫................................8 第三章 臺灣地區電力負載與氣溫..................11 3.1 電力負載資料分析..........................11 3.2 電力負載與氣溫之關係......................13 第四章 臺灣地區取暖與降溫需求..................19 4.1 度日分析法................................19 4.2 臺灣地區度日分布特徵......................20 4.3 度日與電力負載之關係......................23 第五章 未來推估................................26 5.1 未來降溫度日變化..........................26 5.2 預測未來電力負載..........................28 第六章 總結....................................30 參考文獻.......................................33

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