Author: |
張育瑋 |
---|---|
Thesis Title: |
氣候變遷下臺灣地區溫度變化對度日與電力供需之影響 |
Advisor: | 陳正達 |
Degree: |
碩士 Master |
Department: |
地球科學系 Department of Earth Sciences |
Thesis Publication Year: | 2013 |
Academic Year: | 101 |
Language: | 中文 |
Number of pages: | 94 |
Keywords (in Chinese): | 度日 、電力負載 、氣候變遷 、取暖度日 、降溫度日 |
Thesis Type: | Academic thesis/ dissertation |
Reference times: | Clicks: 150 Downloads: 74 |
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全球氣候變遷,臺灣地區夏季的氣溫逐年升高,使得冷氣使用所需的耗能也越來越多,尖峰負載年年創新高。為防止大規模停電,造成嚴重的經濟損失,因此本研究探討臺灣地區氣溫與電力需求兩者之間的關係。
臺灣地區的電力需求呈現夏季多於冬季,平日多於假日的情形,溫度與電力負載呈現非線性關係,因此使用度日分析法使其氣溫與電力負載呈線性關係,以預測未來電力需求。
臺灣地區自1981年至2006年間的度日特徵顯示,取暖度日明顯受緯度影響,出現於11月至隔年4月;降溫度日受都市化影響,出現於5月至10月。整體上,臺灣地區因為緯度較低、氣候溫暖,高溫出現日數較低溫出現日數多,所以降溫需求遠大於取暖需求。
在未來變化預測上,使用CMIP3與CMIP5模式不同情境設定下的氣溫資料,做為推估未來溫度變化的依據。結果顯示,未來降溫度日將急速增加。假設電力負載只受溫度影響下,利用度日分析法所求得的迴歸方程預測未來可能的電力負載值,顯示電力負載於本世紀中葉及本世紀末皆呈現明顯增加的趨勢。
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